Vancouver Canucks at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Jake DeBruskGoals1
- Brock BoeserAssists1
- Jake DeBruskPoints1
Red Wings- Patrick KaneGoals2
- James van RiemsdykAssists2
- Patrick KanePoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:10Lucas Raymond Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: none1–5
- P316:07Patrick Kane Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrew Copp (18)1–4
- P210:10J.T. Compher Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: James van Riemsdyk (6), Axel Sandin-Pellikka (12)1–3
- P27:03Jake DeBrusk Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Kiefer Sherwood (6), Brock Boeser (12)1–2
- P25:09Axel Sandin-Pellikka Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: James van Riemsdyk (5), J.T. Compher (11)0–2
- P119:31Patrick Kane Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (34), Dylan Larkin (18)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:31Patrick Kane Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (34), Dylan Larkin (18)VAN 0 – 1 DET · DET 56% → 72% +16DET 56% → 72%+16 pts
- P25:09Axel Sandin-Pellikka Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: James van Riemsdyk (5), J.T. Compher (11)VAN 0 – 2 DET · DET 73% → 86% +13DET 73% → 86%+13 pts
- P27:03Jake DeBrusk Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Kiefer Sherwood (6), Brock Boeser (12)VAN 1 – 2 DET · VAN 13% → 27% +13VAN 13% → 27%+13 pts
- P210:10J.T. Compher Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: James van Riemsdyk (6), Axel Sandin-Pellikka (12)VAN 1 – 3 DET · DET 74% → 88% +14DET 74% → 88%+14 pts
- P316:07Patrick Kane Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrew Copp (18)VAN 1 – 4 DET · DET >99% → >99% +0DET >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Wings 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- DET 57%
- ML VAN +124 / DET -148
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.0 pts
- DET: Elo 62.2%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- DET -134
- VAN +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 3.0 – 3.5 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1458 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −9 | 0 | VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.23 more goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · DET: John Gibson: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +86 Elo | DET 62.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 62.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 62.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.119th of 32 |
| 31st of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.221st of 32 |
| 31st of 32−0.7 | Margin | −0.120th of 32 |
| 24th of 3247.9% | Shot share | 50.6%15th of 32 |
| 24th of 3289.1% | Save percentage | 89.3%21st of 32 |
| 22nd of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 32 |
| 12th of 3212–11 | Road vs home | 14–93rd of 32 |
| 19th of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 149625th of 32 |
| 29th of 321458 | Elo rating | 150015th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VAN |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 21–21 | 21–23 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–9 | 4–17 |
| Underdog | 20–12 | 17–6 |
| Overs–unders | 25–17 | 23–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VAN 2–3 DET in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.