Vancouver Canucks at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Evander KaneGoals1
- Drew O'ConnorAssists1
- Evander KanePoints1
Canadiens- Alexandre CarrierGoals2
- Ivan DemidovAssists3
- Juraj SlafkovskyPoints3
Scoring summary
- P36:05Oliver Kapanen Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Ivan Demidov (29), Juraj Slafkovský (21)3–6
- P31:07Juraj Slafkovský Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Ivan Demidov (28), Lane Hutson (37)3–5
- P30:29Mike Matheson Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (22), Alexandre Texier (10)3–4
- P29:42Max Sasson Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Drew O'Connor (7), Pierre-Olivier Joseph (2)3–3
- P24:51Alexandre Carrier Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovský (20), Ivan Demidov (27)2–3
- P24:31Alexandre Carrier Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (36), Alexandre Texier (9)2–2
- P21:50Evander Kane Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Aatu Raty (9)2–1
- P118:13Noah Dobson Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (35)1–1
- P111:53Elias Pettersson Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Linus Karlsson (10), Filip Hronek (24)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:13Noah Dobson Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (35)VAN 1 – 1 MTL · MTL 44% → 61% +17MTL 44% → 61%+17 pts
- P21:50Evander Kane Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Aatu Raty (9)VAN 2 – 1 MTL · VAN 39% → 58% +18VAN 39% → 58%+18 pts
- P24:31Alexandre Carrier Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (36), Alexandre Texier (9)VAN 2 – 2 MTL · MTL 41% → 60% +19MTL 41% → 60%+19 pts
- P29:42Max Sasson Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Drew O'Connor (7), Pierre-Olivier Joseph (2)VAN 3 – 3 MTL · VAN 23% → 41% +18VAN 23% → 41%+18 pts
- P30:29Mike Matheson Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (22), Alexandre Texier (10)VAN 3 – 4 MTL · MTL 58% → 80% +22MTL 58% → 80%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canadiens 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- MTL 63%
- ML VAN +160 / MTL -192
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.4 pts
- MTL: Elo 60.7%, market 63.1%
- Fair odds
- MTL -171
- VAN +171 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 2.9 – 3.6 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1451 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +8 | −2 | VAN: Nikita Tolopilo: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · MTL: Jakub Dobes: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MTL +76 Elo | MTL 60.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 61.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 61.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MTL 63.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.47th of 32 |
| 30th of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 3.324th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−0.8 | Margin | +0.115th of 32 |
| 24th of 3248.0% | Shot share | 49.0%21st of 32 |
| 25th of 3288.8% | Save percentage | 88.6%26th of 32 |
| 28th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 17th of 3212–13 | Road vs home | 12–1118th of 32 |
| 18th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 15039th of 32 |
| 29th of 321451 | Elo rating | 150215th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VAN |  MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 21–23 | 24–21 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 1–9 | 5–17 |
| Underdog | 20–14 | 19–4 |
| Overs–unders | 25–19 | 28–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VAN 2–3 MTL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.