Florida Panthers at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Sam BennettGoals2
- Niko MikkolaAssists1
- Sam BennettPoints2
Canadiens- Alexandre TexierGoals3
- Oliver KapanenAssists2
- Alexandre TexierPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:10Alexandre Texier Goal (7) Batted, assists: Samuel Blais (5), Joseph Veleno (2)2–6
- P317:59Juraj Slafkovský Goal (16) , assists: Oliver Kapanen (11), Lane Hutson (36)2–5
- P311:23Sam Bennett Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Evan Rodrigues (12), Niko Mikkola (6)2–4
- P37:26Alexandre Texier Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Mike Matheson (16)1–4
- P213:41Alexandre Texier Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Alexandre Carrier (11), Nick Suzuki (34)1–3
- P25:33Sam Bennett Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: none1–2
- P117:35Oliver Kapanen Goal (15) Backhand, assists: Juraj Slafkovský (19)0–2
- P12:59Noah Dobson Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Mike Matheson (15), Oliver Kapanen (10)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:59Noah Dobson Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Mike Matheson (15), Oliver Kapanen (10)FLA 0 – 1 MTL · MTL 50% → 64% +15MTL 50% → 64%+15 pts
- P117:35Oliver Kapanen Goal (15) Backhand, assists: Juraj Slafkovský (19)FLA 0 – 2 MTL · MTL 66% → 80% +14MTL 66% → 80%+14 pts
- P25:33Sam Bennett Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: noneFLA 1 – 2 MTL · FLA 17% → 32% +15FLA 17% → 32%+15 pts
- P213:41Alexandre Texier Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Alexandre Carrier (11), Nick Suzuki (34)FLA 1 – 3 MTL · MTL 71% → 86% +16MTL 71% → 86%+16 pts
- P37:26Alexandre Texier Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Mike Matheson (16)FLA 1 – 4 MTL · MTL 94% → >99% +5MTL 94% → >99%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 50%
- ML FLA -112 / MTL -108
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.3 pts
- FLA: Elo 56.8%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- FLA -102
- MTL +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 3.3 – 3.2 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1539 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | MTL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +7 | −8 | FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.20 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +47 Elo | FLA 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 55.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.45th of 32 |
| 19th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.323rd of 32 |
| 19th of 32−0.1 | Margin | +0.111th of 32 |
| 6th of 3252.6% | Shot share | 49.1%22nd of 32 |
| 23rd of 3289.2% | Save percentage | 88.5%27th of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 32 |
| 13th of 328–8 | Road vs home | 11–1018th of 32 |
| 6th of 321505 | Opponent Elo | 150212th of 32 |
| 5th of 321539 | Elo rating | 150214th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  FLA |  MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 14–28 | 23–20 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 7–25 | 5–16 |
| Underdog | 7–3 | 18–4 |
| Overs–unders | 23–19 | 27–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
FLA 3–6 MTL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.