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Florida Panthers at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast

FinalTNT, HBO Max

Away

Panthers

22-17-3

1–4

at

Home

Maple Leafs

20-15-7

FLA 55%TOR 45%

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Scotiabank Arena · TNT, HBO Max

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.

TOR favored FLA favored5 scoring plays
P1P2P3TOR50%FLA

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Maple Leafs

Scoring summary

  • P319:52Bobby McMann Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Nicolas Roy (13)1–4
  • P311:38Carter Verhaeghe Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: none1–3
  • P24:01Auston Matthews Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Knies (26), Matias Maccelli (10)0–3
  • P20:42Matthew Knies Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Troy Stecher (6), John Tavares (23)0–2
  • P119:36Easton Cowan Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Nicholas Robertson (12), Nicolas Roy (12)0–1

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P119:36Easton Cowan Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Nicholas Robertson (12), Nicolas Roy (12)FLA 0 – 1 TOR · TOR 46% → 63% +17
  2. P20:42Matthew Knies Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Troy Stecher (6), John Tavares (23)FLA 0 – 2 TOR · TOR 64% → 79% +15
  3. P24:01Auston Matthews Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Knies (26), Matias Maccelli (10)FLA 0 – 3 TOR · TOR 80% → 91% +11
  4. P311:38Carter Verhaeghe Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: noneFLA 1 – 3 TOR · FLA <1% → 3% +3
  5. P319:52Bobby McMann Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Nicolas Roy (13)FLA 1 – 4 TOR · TOR 100% → 100% +0

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Panthers 55%

LeanMiss
FLA 55%TOR 45%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.

Market
FLA 55%
ML FLA -135 / TOR +114
Pre-line forecast
FLA 52%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
FLA 50%
Ratings vs. market
−5.4 pts
FLA: Elo 49.8%, market 55.1%
Fair odds
FLA -123
TOR +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
FLA 2.9 – 2.6 TOR
Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorFLATORWhy
Team rating15431518Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies+9+1FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.23 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsTOR +1 EloTOR 50.2%
Market-implied ratingsFLA 53.0%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastFLA 52.4%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastFLA 55.1%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Florida Panthers and Toronto Maple Leafs compared, with each team's league rank
FLAStatTOR
15th of 323.1Goals scored3.37th of 32
18th of 323.2Goals allowed3.427th of 32
14th of 320.0Margin0.014th of 32
6th of 3252.4%Shot share46.4%30th of 32
22nd of 3289.2%Save percentage89.9%13th of 32
6th of 326–4Last 105–514th of 32
9th of 328–7Road vs home14–106th of 32
7th of 321504Opponent Elo149530th of 32
3rd of 321543Elo rating15189th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

PanthersMaple Leafs
1450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonFLATOR
Puck line14–2716–25
Last 105–54–6
Favorite7–245–19
Underdog7–311–6
Overs–unders23–1824–17
Overs–unders, last 107–35–5

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

FLA 9–7 TOR in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 16.