Toronto Maple Leafs at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- Auston MatthewsGoals2
- Max DomiAssists1
- Auston MatthewsPoints2
Islanders- Matthew SchaeferGoals2
- Mathew BarzalAssists2
- Matthew SchaeferPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT4:11Matthew Schaefer Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (22), Emil Heineman (7)3–4
- P317:15Emil Heineman Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (21), Tony DeAngelo (13)3–3
- P312:12Nicholas Robertson Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Nicolas Roy (11)3–2
- P311:10Matthew Schaefer Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Drouin (16), Jean-Gabriel Pageau (10)2–2
- P217:19Auston Matthews Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Bobby McMann (10), Max Domi (15)2–1
- P29:30Auston Matthews Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–1
- P21:10Adam Pelech Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Drouin (15)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P217:19Auston Matthews Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Bobby McMann (10), Max Domi (15)TOR 2 – 1 NYI · TOR 51% → 73% +22TOR 51% → 73%+22 pts
- P311:10Matthew Schaefer Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Drouin (16), Jean-Gabriel Pageau (10)TOR 2 – 2 NYI · NYI 17% → 50% +33NYI 17% → 50%+33 pts
- P312:12Nicholas Robertson Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Nicolas Roy (11)TOR 3 – 2 NYI · TOR 50% → 85% +34TOR 50% → 85%+34 pts
- P317:15Emil Heineman Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (21), Tony DeAngelo (13)TOR 3 – 3 NYI · NYI 4% → 50% +45NYI 4% → 50%+45 pts
- OT4:11Matthew Schaefer Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (22), Emil Heineman (7)TOR 3 – 4 NYI · NYI 50% → >99% +50NYI 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Maple Leafs 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 51%
- ML TOR -115 / NYI -105
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- TOR: Elo 50.7%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- TOR -104
- NYI +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 2.8 – 2.7 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +1 | TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · NYI: David Rittich: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +5 Elo | TOR 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 55.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 54.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 2.825th of 32 |
| 26th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 2.97th of 32 |
| 11th of 320.0 | Margin | 0.012th of 32 |
| 30th of 3246.4% | Shot share | 49.9%17th of 32 |
| 13th of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 90.8%6th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 31st of 325–11 | Road vs home | 12–1016th of 32 |
| 30th of 321494 | Opponent Elo | 15064th of 32 |
| 9th of 321521 | Elo rating | 148223rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 16–24 | 21–20 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–18 | 2–12 |
| Underdog | 11–6 | 19–8 |
| Overs–unders | 23–17 | 18–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 2–4 NYI in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.