Vancouver Canucks at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks
Maple Leafs- William NylanderGoals1
- William NylanderAssists2
- William NylanderPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:46Nicholas Robertson Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: none0–5
- P213:07John Tavares Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (29)0–4
- P119:40William Nylander Goal (15) Backhand, assists: Steven Lorentz (8), Brandon Carlo (3)0–3
- P116:31Max Domi Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Troy Stecher (7)0–2
- P18:03Matias Maccelli Goal (7) Deflected, assists: William Nylander (28), Auston Matthews (14)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:03Matias Maccelli Goal (7) Deflected, assists: William Nylander (28), Auston Matthews (14)VAN 0 – 1 TOR · TOR 59% → 73% +14TOR 59% → 73%+14 pts
- P116:31Max Domi Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Troy Stecher (7)VAN 0 – 2 TOR · TOR 74% → 86% +12TOR 74% → 86%+12 pts
- P119:40William Nylander Goal (15) Backhand, assists: Steven Lorentz (8), Brandon Carlo (3)VAN 0 – 3 TOR · TOR 86% → 94% +8TOR 86% → 94%+8 pts
- P213:07John Tavares Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (29)VAN 0 – 4 TOR · TOR 96% → >99% +3TOR 96% → >99%+3 pts
- P319:46Nicholas Robertson Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: noneVAN 0 – 5 TOR · TOR 100% → 100% +0TOR 100% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Maple Leafs 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 59%
- ML VAN +136 / TOR -162
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.6 pts
- TOR: Elo 65.0%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- TOR -146
- VAN +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 3.0 – 3.5 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1455 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +3 | VAN: Thatcher Demko: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +107 Elo | TOR 65.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 58.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 59.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.39th of 32 |
| 31st of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 3.322nd of 32 |
| 31st of 32−0.7 | Margin | +0.114th of 32 |
| 24th of 3247.9% | Shot share | 46.4%30th of 32 |
| 24th of 3289.0% | Save percentage | 90.2%12th of 32 |
| 26th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 32 |
| 10th of 3212–12 | Road vs home | 15–106th of 32 |
| 19th of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 149626th of 32 |
| 29th of 321455 | Elo rating | 15258th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VAN |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 21–22 | 18–25 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–9 | 5–19 |
| Underdog | 20–13 | 13–6 |
| Overs–unders | 25–18 | 24–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VAN 3–1 TOR in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.