Toronto Maple Leafs at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- Easton CowanGoals1
- John TavaresAssists1
- Easton CowanPoints1
Flyers- Travis KonecnyGoals1
- Christian DvorakAssists1
- Travis KonecnyPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT2:48Easton Cowan Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: John Tavares (24)2–1
- P314:04Scott Laughton Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–1
- P20:55Travis Konecny Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Christian Dvorak (18), Rasmus Ristolainen (3)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P20:55Travis Konecny Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Christian Dvorak (18), Rasmus Ristolainen (3)TOR 0 – 1 PHI · PHI 52% → 69% +17PHI 52% → 69%+17 pts
- P314:04Scott Laughton Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: noneTOR 1 – 1 PHI · TOR 12% → 49% +37TOR 12% → 49%+37 pts
- OT2:48Easton Cowan Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: John Tavares (24)TOR 2 – 1 PHI · TOR 50% → 97% +48TOR 50% → 97%+48 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Flyers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 53%
- ML TOR +102 / PHI -122
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- PHI: Elo 52.2%, market 52.6%
- Fair odds
- PHI -111
- TOR +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 2.7 – 2.8 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −9 | +8 | TOR: Dennis Hildeby: team allows 0.22 more goals than with its usual starter (≈14 weighted starts) · PHI: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.20 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +16 Elo | PHI 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 57.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 56.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 52.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.116th of 32 |
| 24th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 2.99th of 32 |
| 12th of 320.0 | Margin | +0.37th of 32 |
| 30th of 3246.3% | Shot share | 50.7%12th of 32 |
| 12th of 3290.1% | Save percentage | 89.5%16th of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 32 |
| 31st of 325–12 | Road vs home | 12–99th of 32 |
| 28th of 321496 | Opponent Elo | 150114th of 32 |
| 8th of 321523 | Elo rating | 148620th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 17–25 | 28–13 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 5–19 | 7–7 |
| Underdog | 12–6 | 21–6 |
| Overs–unders | 24–18 | 23–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 6–1 PHI in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.