Anaheim Ducks at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Alex KillornGoals1
- Troy TerryAssists2
- Troy TerryPoints2
Flyers- Trevor ZegrasGoals2
- Noah CatesAssists2
- Trevor ZegrasPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:46Nikita Grebenkin Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–5
- P31:25Alex Killorn Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Troy Terry (29), Jackson LaCombe (20)2–4
- P214:40Travis Sanheim Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Noah Cates (14)1–4
- P21:15Cam York Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Nikita Grebenkin (7), Noah Cates (13)1–3
- P114:23Trevor Zegras Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Cam York (15), Sean Couturier (19)1–2
- P110:22Trevor Zegras Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Christian Dvorak (17), Travis Konecny (24)1–1
- P14:15Cutter Gauthier Goal (20) Slap Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (19), Troy Terry (28)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:15Cutter Gauthier Goal (20) Slap Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (19), Troy Terry (28)ANA 1 – 0 PHI · ANA 42% → 57% +15ANA 42% → 57%+15 pts
- P110:22Trevor Zegras Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Christian Dvorak (17), Travis Konecny (24)ANA 1 – 1 PHI · PHI 42% → 58% +16PHI 42% → 58%+16 pts
- P114:23Trevor Zegras Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Cam York (15), Sean Couturier (19)ANA 1 – 2 PHI · PHI 57% → 73% +15PHI 57% → 73%+15 pts
- P21:15Cam York Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Nikita Grebenkin (7), Noah Cates (13)ANA 1 – 3 PHI · PHI 73% → 86% +13PHI 73% → 86%+13 pts
- P214:40Travis Sanheim Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Noah Cates (14)ANA 1 – 4 PHI · PHI 90% → 97% +7PHI 90% → 97%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Flyers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 58%
- ML ANA +130 / PHI -155
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.6 pts
- PHI: Elo 63.9%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- PHI -140
- ANA +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 3.0 – 3.5 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1458 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | ANA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +8 | ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · PHI: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.20 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +99 Elo | PHI 63.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 62.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 63.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.116th of 32 |
| 32nd of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 2.99th of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−0.2 | Margin | +0.27th of 32 |
| 7th of 3252.2% | Shot share | 50.2%16th of 32 |
| 31st of 3287.9% | Save percentage | 89.6%17th of 32 |
| 30th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 23rd of 329–12 | Road vs home | 11–915th of 32 |
| 20th of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 150213th of 32 |
| 30th of 321458 | Elo rating | 148324th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ANA |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 20–22 | 27–13 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 2–10 | 6–7 |
| Underdog | 18–12 | 21–6 |
| Overs–unders | 28–14 | 22–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ANA 1–3 PHI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.