Minnesota Wild at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Danila YurovGoals2
- Quinn HughesAssists4
- Quinn HughesPoints4
Ducks- Troy TerryGoals1
- Mikael GranlundAssists1
- Troy TerryPoints1
Scoring summary
- P317:27Troy Terry Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (9)5–2
- P315:02Nico Sturm Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Marcus Foligno (3), Jonas Brodin (10)5–1
- P33:21Danila Yurov Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Quinn Hughes (31), Mats Zuccarello (14)4–1
- P214:45Yakov Trenin Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (30), Joel Eriksson Ek (21)3–1
- P213:46Beckett Sennecke Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Mason McTavish (16)2–1
- P28:10Danila Yurov Goal (5) Deflected, assists: Yakov Trenin (11), Quinn Hughes (29)2–0
- P15:39Kirill Kaprizov Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Joel Eriksson Ek (20), Quinn Hughes (28)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:39Kirill Kaprizov Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Joel Eriksson Ek (20), Quinn Hughes (28)MIN 1 – 0 ANA · MIN 56% → 70% +14MIN 56% → 70%+14 pts
- P28:10Danila Yurov Goal (5) Deflected, assists: Yakov Trenin (11), Quinn Hughes (29)MIN 2 – 0 ANA · MIN 73% → 87% +14MIN 73% → 87%+14 pts
- P213:46Beckett Sennecke Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Mason McTavish (16)MIN 2 – 1 ANA · ANA 11% → 26% +14ANA 11% → 26%+14 pts
- P214:45Yakov Trenin Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (30), Joel Eriksson Ek (21)MIN 3 – 1 ANA · MIN 75% → 89% +14MIN 75% → 89%+14 pts
- P33:21Danila Yurov Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Quinn Hughes (31), Mats Zuccarello (14)MIN 4 – 1 ANA · MIN 93% → 98% +6MIN 93% → 98%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wild 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 56%
- ML MIN -142 / ANA +120
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.4 pts
- MIN: Elo 53.9%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- MIN -129
- ANA +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.4 – 3.1 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1466 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | −1 | MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +27 Elo | MIN 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 52.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.43rd of 32 |
| 2nd of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 3.532nd of 32 |
| 4th of 32+0.5 | Margin | −0.121st of 32 |
| 22nd of 3248.8% | Shot share | 52.1%7th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3291.9% | Save percentage | 88.2%31st of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 32 |
| 6th of 3211–8 | Road vs home | 12–86th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321497 | Opponent Elo | 149625th of 32 |
| 7th of 321529 | Elo rating | 146629th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  ANA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 23–18 | 20–20 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 8–14 | 2–10 |
| Underdog | 15–4 | 18–10 |
| Overs–unders | 20–21 | 26–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 6–1 ANA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.