Philadelphia Flyers at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Nick SeelerGoals1
- Sean CouturierAssists2
- Nick SeelerPoints2
Oilers- Connor McDavidGoals1
- Connor McDavidAssists1
- Connor McDavidPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:50Owen Tippett Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Couturier (18), Nick Seeler (5)5–2
- P39:09Nick Seeler Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Rodrigo Abols (6)4–2
- P29:54Evan Bouchard Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (47), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (22)3–2
- P116:08Connor McDavid Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Mattias Ekholm (15)3–1
- P114:38Bobby Brink Goal (11) Deflected, assists: Cam York (14), Matvei Michkov (14)3–0
- P110:31Travis Sanheim Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–0
- P17:16Denver Barkey Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Owen Tippett (12), Sean Couturier (17)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:16Denver Barkey Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Owen Tippett (12), Sean Couturier (17)PHI 1 – 0 EDM · PHI 42% → 58% +15PHI 42% → 58%+15 pts
- P110:31Travis Sanheim Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: nonePHI 2 – 0 EDM · PHI 58% → 73% +15PHI 58% → 73%+15 pts
- P114:38Bobby Brink Goal (11) Deflected, assists: Cam York (14), Matvei Michkov (14)PHI 3 – 0 EDM · PHI 74% → 86% +11PHI 74% → 86%+11 pts
- P29:54Evan Bouchard Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (47), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (22)PHI 3 – 2 EDM · EDM 19% → 36% +17EDM 19% → 36%+17 pts
- P39:09Nick Seeler Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Rodrigo Abols (6)PHI 4 – 2 EDM · PHI 78% → 95% +17PHI 78% → 95%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 58%
- ML PHI +130 / EDM -155
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.8 pts
- EDM: Elo 63.1%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- EDM -140
- PHI +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.0 – 3.5 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +8 | +3 | PHI: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.20 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) · EDM: Calvin Pickard: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +93 Elo | EDM 63.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 60.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 60.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.38th of 32 |
| 10th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.427th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+0.1 | Margin | 0.013th of 32 |
| 16th of 3250.1% | Shot share | 51.1%9th of 32 |
| 18th of 3289.5% | Save percentage | 88.5%28th of 32 |
| 23rd of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 32 |
| 16th of 329–10 | Road vs home | 10–78th of 32 |
| 15th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 150113th of 32 |
| 25th of 321477 | Elo rating | 15405th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 26–13 | 17–24 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–7 | 12–21 |
| Underdog | 20–6 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders | 21–18 | 23–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 2–3 EDM in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.