Anaheim Ducks at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Alex KillornGoals1
- Olen ZellwegerAssists1
- Alex KillornPoints1
Capitals- Justin SourdifGoals3
- Connor McMichaelAssists4
- Justin SourdifPoints5
Scoring summary
- P319:18Alex Ovechkin Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Justin Sourdif (10)4–7
- P318:46John Carlson Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Nic Dowd (8), Martin Fehervary (11)4–6
- P39:22Beckett Sennecke Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Cutter Gauthier (20), Jackson LaCombe (18)4–5
- P214:12Jacob Trouba Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Troy Terry (27)3–5
- P212:56Alex Killorn Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Ross Johnston (10)2–5
- P28:52Alex Ovechkin Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Martin Fehervary (10), John Carlson (22)1–5
- P27:30Justin Sourdif Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Ryan Leonard (16), Connor McMichael (20)1–4
- P25:54Ryan Leonard Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Justin Sourdif (9), Connor McMichael (19)1–3
- P118:58Justin Sourdif Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McMichael (18)1–2
- P115:56Justin Sourdif Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McMichael (17), Matt Roy (12)1–1
- P16:33Chris Kreider Goal (14) Slap Shot, assists: Olen Zellweger (11)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:33Chris Kreider Goal (14) Slap Shot, assists: Olen Zellweger (11)ANA 1 – 0 WSH · ANA 46% → 61% +15ANA 46% → 61%+15 pts
- P115:56Justin Sourdif Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McMichael (17), Matt Roy (12)ANA 1 – 1 WSH · WSH 37% → 54% +17WSH 37% → 54%+17 pts
- P118:58Justin Sourdif Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McMichael (18)ANA 1 – 2 WSH · WSH 54% → 70% +17WSH 54% → 70%+17 pts
- P25:54Ryan Leonard Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Justin Sourdif (9), Connor McMichael (19)ANA 1 – 3 WSH · WSH 71% → 85% +14WSH 71% → 85%+14 pts
- P39:22Beckett Sennecke Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Cutter Gauthier (20), Jackson LaCombe (18)ANA 4 – 5 WSH · ANA 4% → 18% +14ANA 4% → 18%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Capitals 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 54%
- ML ANA +110 / WSH -130
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +8.0 pts
- WSH: Elo 62.3%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- WSH -119
- ANA +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 3.1 – 3.4 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1462 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −5 | −12 | ANA: Petr Mrazek: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.30 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +87 Elo | WSH 62.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 58.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 59.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.211th of 32 |
| 31st of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 2.98th of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−0.2 | Margin | +0.35th of 32 |
| 7th of 3251.9% | Shot share | 51.3%8th of 32 |
| 31st of 3288.1% | Save percentage | 90.6%8th of 32 |
| 30th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 32 |
| 21st of 329–11 | Road vs home | 12–1016th of 32 |
| 21st of 321497 | Opponent Elo | 150311th of 32 |
| 29th of 321462 | Elo rating | 15218th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ANA |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 20–21 | 24–18 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–10 | 13–15 |
| Underdog | 18–11 | 11–3 |
| Overs–unders | 27–14 | 21–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ANA 1–4 WSH in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.