Detroit Red Wings at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Alex DeBrincatGoals1
- Alex DeBrincatAssists2
- Alex DeBrincatPoints3
CanadiensScoring summary
- P318:53Andrew Copp Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Alex DeBrincat (23), Dylan Larkin (19)4–0
- P30:34Alex DeBrincat Goal (23) Slap Shot, assists: Patrick Kane (19), Andrew Copp (19)3–0
- P211:43Dylan Larkin Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (22), Moritz Seider (25)2–0
- P24:52Lucas Raymond Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: James van Riemsdyk (7), Jacob Bernard-Docker (3)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P24:52Lucas Raymond Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: James van Riemsdyk (7), Jacob Bernard-Docker (3)DET 1 – 0 MTL · DET 46% → 65% +19DET 46% → 65%+19 pts
- P211:43Dylan Larkin Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (22), Moritz Seider (25)DET 2 – 0 MTL · DET 67% → 84% +16DET 67% → 84%+16 pts
- P30:34Alex DeBrincat Goal (23) Slap Shot, assists: Patrick Kane (19), Andrew Copp (19)DET 3 – 0 MTL · DET 89% → 97% +8DET 89% → 97%+8 pts
- P318:53Andrew Copp Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Alex DeBrincat (23), Dylan Larkin (19)DET 4 – 0 MTL · DET >99% → 100% +0DET >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canadiens 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- MTL 55%
- ML DET +114 / MTL -135
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.0 pts
- MTL: Elo 57.1%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- MTL -123
- DET +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.1 – 3.4 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +13 | DET: John Gibson: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · MTL: Jacob Fowler: team allows 0.33 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MTL +50 Elo | MTL 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 57.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 57.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MTL 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.45th of 32 |
| 19th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.324th of 32 |
| 17th of 320.0 | Margin | +0.210th of 32 |
| 15th of 3250.6% | Shot share | 48.9%22nd of 32 |
| 19th of 3289.4% | Save percentage | 88.6%27th of 32 |
| 5th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 32 |
| 9th of 3211–10 | Road vs home | 12–1016th of 32 |
| 30th of 321495 | Opponent Elo | 15029th of 32 |
| 14th of 321504 | Elo rating | 150812th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 22–23 | 24–20 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 5–17 | 5–16 |
| Underdog | 17–6 | 19–4 |
| Overs–unders | 23–22 | 28–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 4–5 MTL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 9.