Vancouver Canucks at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Elias PetterssonGoals1
- Linus KarlssonAssists1
- Elias PetterssonPoints1
Senators- Jordan SpenceGoals1
- Michael AmadioAssists1
- Jordan SpencePoints1
Scoring summary
- P31:17Elias Pettersson Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Linus Karlsson (11)1–2
- P115:51Jordan Spence Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (24), Tim Stützle (27)0–2
- P115:36Artem Zub Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Shane Pinto (11), Michael Amadio (10)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:36Artem Zub Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Shane Pinto (11), Michael Amadio (10)VAN 0 – 1 OTT · OTT 65% → 79% +14OTT 65% → 79%+14 pts
- P115:51Jordan Spence Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (24), Tim Stützle (27)VAN 0 – 2 OTT · OTT 79% → 89% +10OTT 79% → 89%+10 pts
- P31:17Elias Pettersson Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Linus Karlsson (11)VAN 1 – 2 OTT · VAN 6% → 18% +12VAN 6% → 18%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 68%
- ML VAN +195 / OTT -238
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- OTT: Elo 65.7%, market 67.5%
- Fair odds
- OTT -208
- VAN +208 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 2.7 – 3.8 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1447 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | VAN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −11 | −8 | VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.27 more goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · OTT: Leevi Merilainen: team allows 0.20 more goals than with its usual starter (≈21 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +113 Elo | OTT 65.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 69.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 68.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 67.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.213th of 32 |
| 31st of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 3.427th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−0.9 | Margin | −0.220th of 32 |
| 24th of 3247.7% | Shot share | 52.6%5th of 32 |
| 25th of 3288.7% | Save percentage | 87.2%32nd of 32 |
| 31st of 321–9 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 32 |
| 18th of 3212–14 | Road vs home | 10–1222nd of 32 |
| 18th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 149920th of 32 |
| 30th of 321447 | Elo rating | 149317th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VAN |  OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 21–24 | 17–27 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 1–9 | 8–23 |
| Underdog | 20–15 | 9–4 |
| Overs–unders | 26–19 | 26–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VAN 3–1 OTT in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.