Florida Panthers at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Gustav ForslingGoals1
- Aaron EkbladAssists2
- Carter VerhaeghePoints2
Senators- Fabian ZetterlundGoals1
- Claude GirouxAssists2
- Claude GirouxPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:18Drake Batherson Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Claude Giroux (23), Jake Sanderson (25)3–2
- P33:48Gustav Forsling Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Aaron Ekblad (15), Carter Verhaeghe (18)3–1
- P213:13Carter Verhaeghe Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Gustav Forsling (14), Anton Lundell (19)2–1
- P111:34Evan Rodrigues Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Aaron Ekblad (14)1–1
- P14:03Fabian Zetterlund Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Shane Pinto (10), Claude Giroux (22)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:03Fabian Zetterlund Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Shane Pinto (10), Claude Giroux (22)FLA 0 – 1 OTT · OTT 53% → 68% +14OTT 53% → 68%+14 pts
- P111:34Evan Rodrigues Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Aaron Ekblad (14)FLA 1 – 1 OTT · FLA 32% → 47% +16FLA 32% → 47%+16 pts
- P213:13Carter Verhaeghe Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Gustav Forsling (14), Anton Lundell (19)FLA 2 – 1 OTT · FLA 48% → 69% +21FLA 48% → 69%+21 pts
- P33:48Gustav Forsling Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Aaron Ekblad (15), Carter Verhaeghe (18)FLA 3 – 1 OTT · FLA 75% → 91% +17FLA 75% → 91%+17 pts
- P318:18Drake Batherson Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Claude Giroux (23), Jake Sanderson (25)FLA 3 – 2 OTT · OTT <1% → 2% +2OTT <1% → 2%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 53%
- ML FLA +105 / OTT -125
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.7 pts
- OTT: Elo 47.6%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- OTT -114
- FLA +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 3.2 – 3.3 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | −10 | FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · OTT: Leevi Merilainen: team allows 0.24 more goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +17 Elo | FLA 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 55.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 53.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.212th of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.427th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.2 | Margin | −0.118th of 32 |
| 5th of 3252.7% | Shot share | 52.7%4th of 32 |
| 25th of 3288.9% | Save percentage | 87.2%32nd of 32 |
| 19th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 32 |
| 19th of 328–9 | Road vs home | 10–1121st of 32 |
| 6th of 321505 | Opponent Elo | 149821st of 32 |
| 6th of 321533 | Elo rating | 149517th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  FLA |  OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 14–29 | 17–26 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 7–26 | 8–22 |
| Underdog | 7–3 | 9–4 |
| Overs–unders | 24–19 | 26–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
FLA 6–2 OTT in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.