Pittsburgh Penguins at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each period. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins
Bruins- Viktor ArvidssonGoals1
- Casey MittelstadtAssists1
- Viktor ArvidssonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P111:00Viktor Arvidsson Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Henri Jokiharju (9), Casey Mittelstadt (10)0–1
Turning points
The play that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:00Viktor Arvidsson Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Henri Jokiharju (9), Casey Mittelstadt (10)PIT 0 – 1 BOS · BOS 48% → 64% +16BOS 48% → 64%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Penguins 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 52%
- ML PIT -120 / BOS +100
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.9 pts
- PIT: Elo 46.2%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- PIT -109
- BOS +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.3 – 3.2 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | BOS and PIT on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +7 | −6 | PIT: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · BOS: Joonas Korpisalo: team allows 0.15 more goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +26 Elo | BOS 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 50.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.47th of 32 |
| 15th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.223rd of 32 |
| 10th of 32+0.1 | Margin | +0.113th of 32 |
| 11th of 3251.1% | Shot share | 47.7%25th of 32 |
| 17th of 3289.5% | Save percentage | 89.7%14th of 32 |
| 4th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 32 |
| 8th of 3211–9 | Road vs home | 14–96th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321494 | Opponent Elo | 15039th of 32 |
| 21st of 321485 | Elo rating | 148919th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 26–17 | 29–16 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 5–11 | 4–7 |
| Underdog | 21–6 | 25–9 |
| Overs–unders | 22–21 | 25–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 2–4 BOS in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 6.