New York Rangers at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Mika ZibanejadGoals1
- Mika ZibanejadAssists1
- Mika ZibanejadPoints2
Bruins- Marat KhusnutdinovGoals4
- David PastrnakAssists6
- David PastrnakPoints6
Scoring summary
- P318:31Marat Khusnutdinov Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Henri Jokiharju (8), Fraser Minten (10)2–10
- P311:26Fraser Minten Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (36), Marat Khusnutdinov (11)2–9
- P33:51Marat Khusnutdinov Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: David Pastrnak (35), Nikita Zadorov (14)2–8
- P215:47Charlie McAvoy Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (34), Jonathan Aspirot (1)2–7
- P214:04J.T. Miller Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (23), Vincent Trocheck (16)2–6
- P211:26Pavel Zacha Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (9)1–6
- P26:41Marat Khusnutdinov Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (33), Elias Lindholm (22)1–5
- P22:12Fraser Minten Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Viktor Arvidsson (13), Alex Steeves (6)1–4
- P119:27Pavel Zacha Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Elias Lindholm (21), David Pastrnak (32)1–3
- P17:16Pavel Zacha Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Charlie McAvoy (23)1–2
- P12:31Marat Khusnutdinov Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (31), Henri Jokiharju (7)1–1
- P11:24Mika Zibanejad Goal (17) Slap Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (33), Matthew Robertson (6)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:24Mika Zibanejad Goal (17) Slap Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (33), Matthew Robertson (6)NYR 1 – 0 BOS · NYR 46% → 60% +15NYR 46% → 60%+15 pts
- P12:31Marat Khusnutdinov Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (31), Henri Jokiharju (7)NYR 1 – 1 BOS · BOS 39% → 54% +15BOS 39% → 54%+15 pts
- P17:16Pavel Zacha Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Charlie McAvoy (23)NYR 1 – 2 BOS · BOS 54% → 69% +15BOS 54% → 69%+15 pts
- P119:27Pavel Zacha Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Elias Lindholm (21), David Pastrnak (32)NYR 1 – 3 BOS · BOS 70% → 84% +13BOS 70% → 84%+13 pts
- P22:12Fraser Minten Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Viktor Arvidsson (13), Alex Steeves (6)NYR 1 – 4 BOS · BOS 84% → 93% +9BOS 84% → 93%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bruins 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 54%
- ML NYR +110 / BOS -130
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.3 pts
- BOS: Elo 53.9%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -119
- NYR +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 3.1 – 3.4 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +1 | NYR: Jonathan Quick: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) · BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +27 Elo | BOS 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 55.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 55.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.213th of 32 |
| 5th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.323rd of 32 |
| 20th of 32−0.2 | Margin | −0.117th of 32 |
| 26th of 3247.6% | Shot share | 47.6%27th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3291.3% | Save percentage | 89.6%14th of 32 |
| 19th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 32 |
| 6th of 3214–10 | Road vs home | 13–96th of 32 |
| 3rd of 321506 | Opponent Elo | 150210th of 32 |
| 18th of 321495 | Elo rating | 148322nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYR |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 23–22 | 28–16 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 5–17 | 3–7 |
| Underdog | 18–5 | 25–9 |
| Overs–unders | 17–28 | 24–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYR 6–1 BOS in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.