Buffalo Sabres at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Jason ZuckerGoals1
- Jason ZuckerAssists1
- Jason ZuckerPoints2
Rangers- Vincent TrocheckGoals1
- J.T. MillerAssists1
- Mika ZibanejadPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:30Ryan McLeod Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: none5–2
- P314:38Mattias Samuelsson Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (16)4–2
- P30:51Vincent Trocheck Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (13), Artemi Panarin (32)3–2
- P212:34Jason Zucker Goal (10) Deflected, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (25), Tage Thompson (18)3–1
- P29:34Mika Zibanejad Goal (16) Slap Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (31)2–1
- P26:58Alex Tuch Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Bowen Byram (14), Josh Norris (10)2–0
- P14:07Josh Doan Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Mattias Samuelsson (15), Jason Zucker (10)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:07Josh Doan Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Mattias Samuelsson (15), Jason Zucker (10)BUF 1 – 0 NYR · BUF 53% → 68% +14BUF 53% → 68%+14 pts
- P26:58Alex Tuch Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Bowen Byram (14), Josh Norris (10)BUF 2 – 0 NYR · BUF 71% → 85% +14BUF 71% → 85%+14 pts
- P29:34Mika Zibanejad Goal (16) Slap Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (31)BUF 2 – 1 NYR · NYR 14% → 28% +14NYR 14% → 28%+14 pts
- P212:34Jason Zucker Goal (10) Deflected, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (25), Tage Thompson (18)BUF 3 – 1 NYR · BUF 72% → 87% +15BUF 72% → 87%+15 pts
- P30:51Vincent Trocheck Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (13), Artemi Panarin (32)BUF 3 – 2 NYR · NYR 9% → 24% +15NYR 9% → 24%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Sabres 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- BUF 53%
- ML BUF -125 / NYR +105
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.0 pts
- BUF: Elo 45.2%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- BUF -114
- NYR +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 3.3 – 3.2 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | −1 | BUF: Colten Ellis: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · NYR: Jonathan Quick: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +33 Elo | NYR 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 53.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 2.630th of 32 |
| 15th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.74th of 32 |
| 13th of 320.0 | Margin | −0.118th of 32 |
| 20th of 3249.2% | Shot share | 47.3%27th of 32 |
| 10th of 3290.3% | Save percentage | 91.5%3rd of 32 |
| 1st of 329–1 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 32 |
| 23rd of 329–12 | Road vs home | 5–1431st of 32 |
| 11th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 15055th of 32 |
| 13th of 321502 | Elo rating | 150017th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  NYR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 21–20 | 23–21 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–10 | 5–17 |
| Underdog | 13–10 | 18–4 |
| Overs–unders | 19–22 | 16–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BUF 3–4 NYR in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.