Philadelphia Flyers at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Matvei MichkovGoals1
- Denver BarkeyAssists2
- Denver BarkeyPoints2
Penguins- Sidney CrosbyGoals1
- Tommy NovakAssists2
- Sidney CrosbyPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:25Matvei Michkov Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Denver Barkey (4), Sean Couturier (20)3–6
- P310:54Nick Seeler Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Denver Barkey (3), Noah Juulsen (6)2–6
- P34:27Connor Dewar Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Thomas Novak (15)1–6
- P33:10Sidney Crosby Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (24), Rickard Rakell (12)1–5
- P218:29Blake Lizotte Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Noel Acciari (7)1–4
- P22:17Rodrigo Abols Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Cam York (16), Carl Grundstrom (2)1–3
- P21:16Egor Chinakhov Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (23), Thomas Novak (14)0–3
- P112:25Bryan Rust Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Kris Letang (21), Sidney Crosby (26)0–2
- P12:16Justin Brazeau Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Ben Kindel (12), Anthony Mantha (16)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:16Justin Brazeau Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Ben Kindel (12), Anthony Mantha (16)PHI 0 – 1 PIT · PIT 61% → 74% +13PIT 61% → 74%+13 pts
- P112:25Bryan Rust Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Kris Letang (21), Sidney Crosby (26)PHI 0 – 2 PIT · PIT 74% → 86% +11PIT 74% → 86%+11 pts
- P21:16Egor Chinakhov Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (23), Thomas Novak (14)PHI 0 – 3 PIT · PIT 87% → 94% +7PIT 87% → 94%+7 pts
- P22:17Rodrigo Abols Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Cam York (16), Carl Grundstrom (2)PHI 1 – 3 PIT · PHI 5% → 13% +7PHI 5% → 13%+7 pts
- P218:29Blake Lizotte Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Noel Acciari (7)PHI 1 – 4 PIT · PIT 92% → 98% +6PIT 92% → 98%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Penguins 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 61%
- ML PHI +145 / PIT -175
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.7 pts
- PIT: Elo 63.6%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- PIT -156
- PHI +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 2.9 – 3.6 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1471 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | PHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −14 | +8 | PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.36 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · PIT: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.20 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +97 Elo | PIT 63.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 60.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 61.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.116th of 32 |
| 12th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.012th of 32 |
| 18th of 320.0 | Margin | +0.113th of 32 |
| 14th of 3250.6% | Shot share | 51.1%12th of 32 |
| 25th of 3288.8% | Save percentage | 89.8%16th of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 32 |
| 18th of 3210–11 | Road vs home | 9–1329th of 32 |
| 8th of 321505 | Opponent Elo | 149628th of 32 |
| 27th of 321471 | Elo rating | 148122nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 28–17 | 27–18 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 7–8 | 5–12 |
| Underdog | 21–9 | 22–6 |
| Overs–unders | 26–19 | 22–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 5–5 PIT in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.