Philadelphia Flyers at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Owen TippettGoals1
- Owen TippettAssists1
- Owen TippettPoints2
Sabres- Rasmus DahlinGoals2
- Josh DoanAssists2
- Rasmus DahlinPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:20Ryan McLeod Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Tuch (23)2–5
- P37:37Trevor Zegras Goal (18) Deflected, assists: Travis Konecny (25), Owen Tippett (13)2–4
- P213:51Rasmus Dahlin Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Josh Norris (11), Tage Thompson (22)1–4
- P210:28Owen Tippett Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Noah Cates (15)1–3
- P24:22Jack Quinn Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (19), Zach Benson (16)0–3
- P115:13Mattias Samuelsson Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Noah Ostlund (6), Josh Doan (18)0–2
- P19:30Rasmus Dahlin Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Josh Doan (17), Tage Thompson (21)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:30Rasmus Dahlin Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Josh Doan (17), Tage Thompson (21)PHI 0 – 1 BUF · BUF 56% → 71% +15BUF 56% → 71%+15 pts
- P115:13Mattias Samuelsson Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Noah Ostlund (6), Josh Doan (18)PHI 0 – 2 BUF · BUF 71% → 84% +12BUF 71% → 84%+12 pts
- P24:22Jack Quinn Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (19), Zach Benson (16)PHI 0 – 3 BUF · BUF 86% → 94% +8BUF 86% → 94%+8 pts
- P210:28Owen Tippett Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Noah Cates (15)PHI 1 – 3 BUF · PHI 5% → 12% +8PHI 5% → 12%+8 pts
- P213:51Rasmus Dahlin Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Josh Norris (11), Tage Thompson (22)PHI 1 – 4 BUF · BUF 89% → 96% +7BUF 89% → 96%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Sabres 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- BUF 56%
- ML PHI +120 / BUF -142
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.4 pts
- BUF: Elo 58.8%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- BUF -129
- PHI +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.1 – 3.4 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | 0 | PHI: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +62 Elo | BUF 58.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 57.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 57.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.312th of 32 |
| 11th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.119th of 32 |
| 16th of 320.0 | Margin | +0.111th of 32 |
| 14th of 3250.5% | Shot share | 48.7%22nd of 32 |
| 22nd of 3289.0% | Save percentage | 90.4%9th of 32 |
| 15th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 32 |
| 12th of 3210–10 | Road vs home | 14–85th of 32 |
| 8th of 321504 | Opponent Elo | 150212th of 32 |
| 25th of 321475 | Elo rating | 150813th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 28–16 | 23–21 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 7–8 | 10–11 |
| Underdog | 21–8 | 13–10 |
| Overs–unders | 25–19 | 22–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 4–4 BUF in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.