Florida Panthers at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- A.J. GreerGoals2
- Carter VerhaegheAssists3
- Carter VerhaeghePoints3
Sabres- Zach BensonGoals1
- Ryan McLeodAssists1
- Alex TuchPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:46Alex Tuch Goal (15) Backhand, assists: Bowen Byram (15), Rasmus Dahlin (26)4–3
- P318:46A.J. Greer Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (21), Sam Bennett (19)4–2
- P311:07Anton Lundell Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Eetu Luostarinen (15), Gustav Forsling (15)3–2
- P217:57Zach Benson Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Tage Thompson (20)2–2
- P115:11A.J. Greer Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Bennett (18), Carter Verhaeghe (20)2–1
- P110:19Jacob Bryson Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (18), Zach Metsa (1)1–1
- P12:35Sam Reinhart Goal (24) Tip-In, assists: Uvis Balinskis (7), Carter Verhaeghe (19)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:35Sam Reinhart Goal (24) Tip-In, assists: Uvis Balinskis (7), Carter Verhaeghe (19)FLA 1 – 0 BUF · FLA 48% → 63% +15FLA 48% → 63%+15 pts
- P110:19Jacob Bryson Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (18), Zach Metsa (1)FLA 1 – 1 BUF · BUF 36% → 52% +16BUF 36% → 52%+16 pts
- P115:11A.J. Greer Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Bennett (18), Carter Verhaeghe (20)FLA 2 – 1 BUF · FLA 48% → 65% +17FLA 48% → 65%+17 pts
- P217:57Zach Benson Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Tage Thompson (20)FLA 2 – 2 BUF · BUF 28% → 51% +23BUF 28% → 51%+23 pts
- P311:07Anton Lundell Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Eetu Luostarinen (15), Gustav Forsling (15)FLA 3 – 2 BUF · FLA 49% → 82% +33FLA 49% → 82%+33 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Sabres 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- BUF 52%
- ML FLA +100 / BUF -120
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.1 pts
- BUF: Elo 51.1%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- BUF -109
- FLA +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 3.2 – 3.3 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +2 | FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · BUF: Colten Ellis: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +8 Elo | BUF 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 51.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.312th of 32 |
| 23rd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.117th of 32 |
| 19th of 32−0.2 | Margin | +0.111th of 32 |
| 4th of 3252.7% | Shot share | 48.9%22nd of 32 |
| 24th of 3288.9% | Save percentage | 90.4%9th of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 32 |
| 12th of 329–9 | Road vs home | 14–72nd of 32 |
| 7th of 321505 | Opponent Elo | 150113th of 32 |
| 6th of 321535 | Elo rating | 151012th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  FLA |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 15–29 | 23–20 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 7–26 | 10–10 |
| Underdog | 8–3 | 13–10 |
| Overs–unders | 24–20 | 21–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
FLA 6–2 BUF in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.