Anaheim Ducks at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Leo CarlssonGoals1
- Leo CarlssonAssists1
- Leo CarlssonPoints2
Sabres- Jack QuinnGoals2
- Peyton KrebsAssists2
- Jack QuinnPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:49Josh Norris Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Alex Tuch (22)3–5
- P319:12Mason McTavish Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Leo Carlsson (26), Beckett Sennecke (20)3–4
- P318:02Leo Carlsson Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Ian Moore (5)2–4
- P316:00Jack Quinn Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Benson (15), Owen Power (11)1–4
- P315:16Olen Zellweger Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Jackson LaCombe (22), Mikael Granlund (10)1–3
- P37:09Bowen Byram Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Tage Thompson (19), Peyton Krebs (13)0–3
- P27:22Tage Thompson Goal (22) Tip-In, assists: Peyton Krebs (12), Josh Doan (16)0–2
- P12:03Jack Quinn Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (17), Zach Benson (14)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:03Jack Quinn Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (17), Zach Benson (14)ANA 0 – 1 BUF · BUF 57% → 71% +14BUF 57% → 71%+14 pts
- P27:22Tage Thompson Goal (22) Tip-In, assists: Peyton Krebs (12), Josh Doan (16)ANA 0 – 2 BUF · BUF 74% → 87% +13BUF 74% → 87%+13 pts
- P37:09Bowen Byram Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Tage Thompson (19), Peyton Krebs (13)ANA 0 – 3 BUF · BUF 95% → >99% +4BUF 95% → >99%+4 pts
- P315:16Olen Zellweger Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Jackson LaCombe (22), Mikael Granlund (10)ANA 1 – 3 BUF · ANA <1% → <1% +0ANA <1% → <1%+0 pts
- P316:00Jack Quinn Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Benson (15), Owen Power (11)ANA 1 – 4 BUF · BUF >99% → >99% +0BUF >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Sabres 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- BUF 57%
- ML ANA +124 / BUF -148
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.8 pts
- BUF: Elo 63.0%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- BUF -134
- ANA +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 3.0 – 3.5 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1452 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | 0 | ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.00 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +92 Elo | BUF 63.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 56.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 57.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.213th of 32 |
| 32nd of 323.7 | Goals allowed | 3.116th of 32 |
| 26th of 32−0.4 | Margin | +0.113th of 32 |
| 8th of 3251.3% | Shot share | 49.0%21st of 32 |
| 31st of 3288.0% | Save percentage | 90.4%9th of 32 |
| 31st of 321–9 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 32 |
| 26th of 329–14 | Road vs home | 13–72nd of 32 |
| 20th of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 150211th of 32 |
| 30th of 321452 | Elo rating | 150713th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ANA |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 20–24 | 22–20 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 2–10 | 9–10 |
| Underdog | 18–14 | 13–10 |
| Overs–unders | 30–14 | 20–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ANA 2–2 BUF in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.