Anaheim Ducks at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Mikael GranlundGoals1
- Chris KreiderAssists1
- Mikael GranlundPoints1
Hurricanes- Taylor HallGoals1
- Taylor HallAssists1
- Taylor HallPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:11Taylor Hall Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Sean Walker (8), K'Andre Miller (16)2–5
- P310:39Jackson Blake Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Alexander Nikishin (12), Logan Stankoven (12)2–4
- P216:08Jalen Chatfield Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Jordan Staal (7), Shayne Gostisbehere (26)2–3
- P214:05Logan Stankoven Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Taylor Hall (13), Jalen Chatfield (9)2–2
- P212:04Mikael Granlund Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Mason McTavish (17), Beckett Sennecke (19)2–1
- P28:56Mark Jankowski Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Eric Robinson (5)1–1
- P113:18Ryan Poehling Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (21), Chris Kreider (10)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:18Ryan Poehling Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (21), Chris Kreider (10)ANA 1 – 0 CAR · ANA 35% → 51% +16ANA 35% → 51%+16 pts
- P28:56Mark Jankowski Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Eric Robinson (5)ANA 1 – 1 CAR · CAR 42% → 62% +20CAR 42% → 62%+20 pts
- P212:04Mikael Granlund Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Mason McTavish (17), Beckett Sennecke (19)ANA 2 – 1 CAR · ANA 38% → 59% +21ANA 38% → 59%+21 pts
- P214:05Logan Stankoven Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Taylor Hall (13), Jalen Chatfield (9)ANA 2 – 2 CAR · CAR 39% → 61% +22CAR 39% → 61%+22 pts
- P216:08Jalen Chatfield Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Jordan Staal (7), Shayne Gostisbehere (26)ANA 2 – 3 CAR · CAR 61% → 80% +19CAR 61% → 80%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 67%
- ML ANA +190 / CAR -230
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.1 pts
- CAR: Elo 65.8%, market 66.9%
- Fair odds
- CAR -202
- ANA +202 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 2.8 – 3.7 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1455 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −7 | −13 | ANA: Ville Husso: team allows 0.16 more goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) · CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.33 more goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +114 Elo | CAR 65.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 63.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 63.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 66.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.44th of 32 |
| 32nd of 323.7 | Goals allowed | 3.013th of 32 |
| 25th of 32−0.3 | Margin | +0.45th of 32 |
| 7th of 3251.7% | Shot share | 56.4%1st of 32 |
| 31st of 3288.0% | Save percentage | 88.8%26th of 32 |
| 31st of 321–9 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 32 |
| 26th of 329–13 | Road vs home | 14–93rd of 32 |
| 20th of 321498 | Opponent Elo | 15047th of 32 |
| 30th of 321455 | Elo rating | 15414th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ANA |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 20–23 | 16–27 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 2–10 | 14–25 |
| Underdog | 18–13 | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 29–14 | 23–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ANA 2–3 CAR in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.