Dallas Stars at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Jason RobertsonGoals1
- Jason RobertsonAssists2
- Jason RobertsonPoints3
Hurricanes- K'Andre MillerGoals2
- Andrei SvechnikovAssists4
- Andrei SvechnikovPoints4
Scoring summary
- P318:11Wyatt Johnston Goal (23) Batted, assists: Mikko Rantanen (42), Jason Robertson (27)3–6
- P38:18William Carrier Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (23)2–6
- P30:36Mikko Rantanen Goal (17) Backhand, assists: Jason Robertson (26)2–5
- P26:59Seth Jarvis Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (23), Nikolaj Ehlers (22)1–5
- P25:17K'Andre Miller Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (22), Nikolaj Ehlers (21)1–4
- P118:56Logan Stankoven Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: K'Andre Miller (15), Jalen Chatfield (8)1–3
- P113:32Shayne Gostisbehere Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (11), Andrei Svechnikov (21)1–2
- P111:53Jason Robertson Goal (25) , assists: none1–1
- P17:19K'Andre Miller Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (20), Sebastian Aho (26)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:19K'Andre Miller Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (20), Sebastian Aho (26)DAL 0 – 1 CAR · CAR 56% → 71% +15CAR 56% → 71%+15 pts
- P111:53Jason Robertson Goal (25) , assists: noneDAL 1 – 1 CAR · DAL 29% → 44% +15DAL 29% → 44%+15 pts
- P113:32Shayne Gostisbehere Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (11), Andrei Svechnikov (21)DAL 1 – 2 CAR · CAR 56% → 71% +15CAR 56% → 71%+15 pts
- P118:56Logan Stankoven Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: K'Andre Miller (15), Jalen Chatfield (8)DAL 1 – 3 CAR · CAR 72% → 84% +13CAR 72% → 84%+13 pts
- P25:17K'Andre Miller Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (22), Nikolaj Ehlers (21)DAL 1 – 4 CAR · CAR 86% → 94% +8CAR 86% → 94%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 56%
- ML DAL +120 / CAR -142
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.1 pts
- CAR: Elo 54.2%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- CAR -129
- DAL +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 3.1 – 3.4 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1547 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | +4 | DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · CAR: Brandon Bussi: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +29 Elo | CAR 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 57.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 56.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 323.5 | Goals scored | 3.45th of 32 |
| 6th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.014th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+0.7 | Margin | +0.36th of 32 |
| 24th of 3247.6% | Shot share | 56.3%2nd of 32 |
| 6th of 3290.7% | Save percentage | 88.8%26th of 32 |
| 22nd of 324–6 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 32 |
| 3rd of 3213–8 | Road vs home | 13–94th of 32 |
| 28th of 321495 | Opponent Elo | 15039th of 32 |
| 3rd of 321547 | Elo rating | 15365th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 17–25 | 15–27 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 9–25 | 13–25 |
| Underdog | 8–0 | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 21–21 | 22–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 3–2 CAR in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.