Tampa Bay Lightning at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Nikita KucherovGoals2
- Brayden PointAssists3
- Nikita KucherovPoints4
Flyers- Garnet HathawayGoals1
- Rodrigo AbolsAssists1
- Garnet HathawayPoints1
Scoring summary
- P311:00Gage Goncalves Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (43), Brayden Point (19)7–2
- P39:00Yanni Gourde Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Zemgus Girgensons (3)6–2
- P34:45Owen Tippett Goal (14) Slap Shot, assists: Christian Dvorak (19)5–2
- P33:37Brandon Hagel Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (26), Anthony Cirelli (15)5–1
- P32:03Gage Goncalves Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (42), Darren Raddysh (25)4–1
- P213:37Nick Paul Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Charle-Edouard D'Astous (13), Anthony Cirelli (14)3–1
- P16:05Nikita Kucherov Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Brayden Point (18), Charle-Edouard D'Astous (12)2–1
- P14:15Garnet Hathaway Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Noah Juulsen (5), Rodrigo Abols (7)1–1
- P11:49Nikita Kucherov Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Brayden Point (17)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:49Nikita Kucherov Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Brayden Point (17)TB 1 – 0 PHI · TB 62% → 75% +13TB 62% → 75%+13 pts
- P14:15Garnet Hathaway Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Noah Juulsen (5), Rodrigo Abols (7)TB 1 – 1 PHI · PHI 25% → 38% +13PHI 25% → 38%+13 pts
- P16:05Nikita Kucherov Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Brayden Point (18), Charle-Edouard D'Astous (12)TB 2 – 1 PHI · TB 62% → 75% +14TB 62% → 75%+14 pts
- P213:37Nick Paul Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Charle-Edouard D'Astous (13), Anthony Cirelli (14)TB 3 – 1 PHI · TB 78% → 90% +13TB 78% → 90%+13 pts
- P32:03Gage Goncalves Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (42), Darren Raddysh (25)TB 4 – 1 PHI · TB 93% → 99% +5TB 93% → 99%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- TB 62%
- ML TB -185 / PHI +154
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- TB: Elo 60.0%, market 62.2%
- Fair odds
- TB -165
- PHI +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.1 – 2.4 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1566 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +12 | −11 | TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.30 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.28 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +70 Elo | TB 60.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 58.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 58.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 62.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 323.5 | Goals scored | 3.118th of 32 |
| 2nd of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 2.97th of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+0.8 | Margin | +0.27th of 32 |
| 14th of 3250.6% | Shot share | 50.7%12th of 32 |
| 7th of 3290.5% | Save percentage | 89.6%17th of 32 |
| 2nd of 328–2 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 1st of 3214–7 | Road vs home | 12–1016th of 32 |
| 14th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 150113th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321566 | Elo rating | 148422nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 20–22 | 28–14 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 10–22 | 7–8 |
| Underdog | 10–0 | 21–6 |
| Overs–unders | 22–20 | 23–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 4–3 PHI in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.