Tampa Bay Lightning at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Brandon HagelGoals1
- Darren RaddyshAssists2
- Nikita KucherovPoints2
Flyers- Christian DvorakGoals1
- Christian DvorakPoints1
Scoring summary
- P316:39Nikita Kucherov Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Darren Raddysh (27), Anthony Cirelli (16)5–1
- P219:29Brandon Hagel Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Darren Raddysh (26), Nikita Kucherov (44)4–1
- P25:40Christian Dvorak Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–1
- P24:29Brayden Point Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Oliver Bjorkstrand (15), Jake Guentzel (27)3–0
- P20:33Jake Guentzel Goal (20) Deflected, assists: Erik Cernak (5), Brandon Hagel (19)2–0
- P11:10Pontus Holmberg Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Zemgus Girgensons (4), Yanni Gourde (10)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:10Pontus Holmberg Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Zemgus Girgensons (4), Yanni Gourde (10)TB 1 – 0 PHI · TB 56% → 70% +14TB 56% → 70%+14 pts
- P20:33Jake Guentzel Goal (20) Deflected, assists: Erik Cernak (5), Brandon Hagel (19)TB 2 – 0 PHI · TB 72% → 85% +13TB 72% → 85%+13 pts
- P24:29Brayden Point Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Oliver Bjorkstrand (15), Jake Guentzel (27)TB 3 – 0 PHI · TB 86% → 94% +8TB 86% → 94%+8 pts
- P25:40Christian Dvorak Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: noneTB 3 – 1 PHI · PHI 6% → 14% +8PHI 6% → 14%+8 pts
- P219:29Brandon Hagel Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Darren Raddysh (26), Nikita Kucherov (44)TB 4 – 1 PHI · TB 91% → 98% +7TB 91% → 98%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- TB 56%
- ML TB -142 / PHI +120
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.2 pts
- TB: Elo 54.2%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- TB -129
- PHI +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 2.9 – 2.6 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1570 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −17 | +9 | TB: Jonas Johansson: team allows 0.43 more goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) · PHI: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.23 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +29 Elo | TB 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 55.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 55.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 323.6 | Goals scored | 3.118th of 32 |
| 2nd of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 3.011th of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+0.9 | Margin | +0.113th of 32 |
| 13th of 3250.7% | Shot share | 50.6%14th of 32 |
| 7th of 3290.5% | Save percentage | 89.2%22nd of 32 |
| 1st of 329–1 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 1st of 3215–7 | Road vs home | 12–1118th of 32 |
| 16th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 15029th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321570 | Elo rating | 148022nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 21–22 | 28–15 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 11–22 | 7–8 |
| Underdog | 10–0 | 21–7 |
| Overs–unders | 23–20 | 24–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 5–3 PHI in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.