Pittsburgh Penguins at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Tommy NovakGoals1
- Kaedan KorczakAssists1
- Bryan RustPoints1
Capitals- Tom WilsonGoals1
- Tom WilsonAssists2
- Tom WilsonPoints3
Scoring summary
- P33:55Ryan Leonard Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Kyrou (1), Cole Hutson (1)3–5
- P218:01Nick Robertson Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Kaedan Korczak (4), Blake Lizotte (1)3–4
- P214:05Tommy Novak Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: none2–4
- P213:14Alex Tuch Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Tom Wilson (3)1–4
- P24:42Pierre-Luc Dubois Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Tom Wilson (2)1–3
- P111:51Tom Wilson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (3)1–2
- P11:19Bryan Rust Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Ben Kindel (2), Samuel Girard (3)1–1
- P10:23Anthony Beauvillier Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Dylan Strome (3)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:23Anthony Beauvillier Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Dylan Strome (3)PIT 0 – 1 WSH · WSH 58% → 72% +13WSH 58% → 72%+13 pts
- P11:19Bryan Rust Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Ben Kindel (2), Samuel Girard (3)PIT 1 – 1 WSH · PIT 28% → 42% +14PIT 28% → 42%+14 pts
- P111:51Tom Wilson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (3)PIT 1 – 2 WSH · WSH 57% → 72% +15WSH 57% → 72%+15 pts
- P218:01Nick Robertson Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Kaedan Korczak (4), Blake Lizotte (1)PIT 3 – 4 WSH · PIT 9% → 23% +14PIT 9% → 23%+14 pts
- P33:55Ryan Leonard Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Kyrou (1), Cole Hutson (1)PIT 3 – 5 WSH · WSH 79% → 94% +14WSH 79% → 94%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Capitals 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 58%
- ML PIT +130 / WSH -155
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- WSH: Elo 57.9%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- WSH -140
- PIT +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.0 – 3.5 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +7 | PIT: Arturs Silovs: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) · WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +55 Elo | WSH 57.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 61.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 60.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 323.6 | Goals scored | 3.215th of 32 |
| 24th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.010th of 32 |
| 10th of 32+0.3 | Margin | +0.212th of 32 |
| 11th of 3251.1% | Shot share | 49.9%17th of 32 |
| 24th of 3289.1% | Save percentage | 90.3%5th of 32 |
| 16th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 32 |
| 9th of 3221–19 | Road vs home | 25–167th of 32 |
| 10th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 32 |
| 14th of 321508 | Elo rating | 15259th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  PIT |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 49–39 | 45–37 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 13–23 | 24–28 |
| Underdog | 36–16 | 21–9 |
| Overs–unders | 50–38 | 37–45 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 5–6 WSH in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.