Pittsburgh Penguins at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins
Capitals- Connor McMichaelGoals2
- Martin FehervaryAssists2
- Connor McMichaelPoints3
Scoring summary
- P317:16Connor McMichael Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Ovechkin (31), Martin Fehervary (22)0–3
- P315:50Connor McMichael Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Ryan Leonard (25), Martin Fehervary (21)0–2
- P212:22Trevor van Riemsdyk Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (14), Connor McMichael (32)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P212:22Trevor van Riemsdyk Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (14), Connor McMichael (32)PIT 0 – 1 WSH · WSH 55% → 75% +20WSH 55% → 75%+20 pts
- P315:50Connor McMichael Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Ryan Leonard (25), Martin Fehervary (21)PIT 0 – 2 WSH · WSH 92% → >99% +7WSH 92% → >99%+7 pts
- P317:16Connor McMichael Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Ovechkin (31), Martin Fehervary (22)PIT 0 – 3 WSH · WSH >99% → >99% +0WSH >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Capitals 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 57%
- ML PIT +124 / WSH -148
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.1 pts
- WSH: Elo 56.1%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- WSH -134
- PIT +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.0 – 3.5 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | WSH and PIT on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +2 | PIT: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +43 Elo | WSH 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 58.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 58.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 323.6 | Goals scored | 3.214th of 32 |
| 24th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.012th of 32 |
| 9th of 32+0.4 | Margin | +0.212th of 32 |
| 10th of 3251.2% | Shot share | 50.0%17th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3289.2% | Save percentage | 90.2%9th of 32 |
| 5th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 32 |
| 9th of 3221–17 | Road vs home | 24–167th of 32 |
| 9th of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 150116th of 32 |
| 12th of 321516 | Elo rating | 152210th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 47–33 | 43–37 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 13–20 | 23–28 |
| Underdog | 34–13 | 20–9 |
| Overs–unders | 47–33 | 37–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 5–5 WSH in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.