Florida Panthers at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Carter VerhaegheGoals1
- Gustav ForslingAssists1
- Carter VerhaeghePoints1
Penguins- Rickard RakellGoals2
- Sidney CrosbyAssists2
- Sidney CrosbyPoints3
Scoring summary
- P314:15Carter Verhaeghe Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Seth Jones (24)2–5
- P33:48Bryan Rust Goal (28) Backhand, assists: Sidney Crosby (43), Egor Chinakhov (19)1–5
- P218:08Rickard Rakell Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (41), Thomas Novak (25)1–4
- P119:12Rickard Rakell Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (42), Evgeni Malkin (40)1–3
- P116:50Sidney Crosby Goal (29) Snap Shot, assists: Egor Chinakhov (18), Bryan Rust (36)1–2
- P116:15Cole Schwindt Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Vinnie Hinostroza (10), Gustav Forsling (25)1–1
- P111:00Elmer Soderblom Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:00Elmer Soderblom Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: noneFLA 0 – 1 PIT · PIT 67% → 80% +13PIT 67% → 80%+13 pts
- P116:15Cole Schwindt Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Vinnie Hinostroza (10), Gustav Forsling (25)FLA 1 – 1 PIT · FLA 20% → 34% +14FLA 20% → 34%+14 pts
- P116:50Sidney Crosby Goal (29) Snap Shot, assists: Egor Chinakhov (18), Bryan Rust (36)FLA 1 – 2 PIT · PIT 66% → 80% +14PIT 66% → 80%+14 pts
- P119:12Rickard Rakell Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (42), Evgeni Malkin (40)FLA 1 – 3 PIT · PIT 80% → 90% +10PIT 80% → 90%+10 pts
- P218:08Rickard Rakell Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (41), Thomas Novak (25)FLA 1 – 4 PIT · PIT 93% → 98% +5PIT 93% → 98%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Penguins 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 69%
- ML FLA +205 / PIT -250
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.6 pts
- PIT: Elo 56.9%, market 68.5%
- Fair odds
- PIT -218
- FLA +218 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 2.7 – 3.8 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | PIT and FLA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −12 | −4 | FLA: Daniil Tarasov: team allows 0.29 more goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · PIT: Arturs Silovs: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +48 Elo | PIT 56.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 64.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 63.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 68.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.64th of 32 |
| 28th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 3.224th of 32 |
| 26th of 32−0.4 | Margin | +0.49th of 32 |
| 11th of 3251.1% | Shot share | 51.5%7th of 32 |
| 28th of 3288.4% | Save percentage | 89.2%23rd of 32 |
| 19th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 32 |
| 21st of 3216–21 | Road vs home | 18–2023rd of 32 |
| 2nd of 321504 | Opponent Elo | 15029th of 32 |
| 14th of 321507 | Elo rating | 151312th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  FLA |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 26–50 | 45–32 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 9–40 | 11–20 |
| Underdog | 17–10 | 34–12 |
| Overs–unders | 43–33 | 44–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
FLA 5–3 PIT in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.