Dallas Stars at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Mavrik BourqueGoals2
- Jamie BennAssists2
- Mavrik BourquePoints3
Penguins- Erik KarlssonGoals1
- Erik KarlssonAssists2
- Erik KarlssonPoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:50Mavrik Bourque Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Jamie Benn (19), Esa Lindell (23)6–3
- P316:52Mavrik Bourque Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Myers (9)5–3
- P38:54Noel Acciari Goal (10) Deflected, assists: Elmer Soderblom (3), Erik Karlsson (47)4–3
- P211:38Lian Bichsel Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Mavrik Bourque (19), Oskar Bäck (6)4–2
- P210:12Mikko Rantanen Goal (21) Slap Shot, assists: Jason Robertson (47), Miro Heiskanen (51)3–2
- P27:12Jason Robertson Goal (40) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (50), Matt Duchene (23)2–2
- P22:58Erik Karlsson Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Parker Wotherspoon (24)1–2
- P22:10Justin Hryckowian Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Colin Blackwell (10), Jamie Benn (18)1–1
- P12:12Anthony Mantha Goal (27) Tip-In, assists: Erik Karlsson (46), Rickard Rakell (23)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:12Anthony Mantha Goal (27) Tip-In, assists: Erik Karlsson (46), Rickard Rakell (23)DAL 0 – 1 PIT · PIT 46% → 61% +15PIT 46% → 61%+15 pts
- P22:10Justin Hryckowian Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Colin Blackwell (10), Jamie Benn (18)DAL 1 – 1 PIT · DAL 35% → 53% +18DAL 35% → 53%+18 pts
- P22:58Erik Karlsson Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Parker Wotherspoon (24)DAL 1 – 2 PIT · PIT 47% → 65% +18PIT 47% → 65%+18 pts
- P27:12Jason Robertson Goal (40) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (50), Matt Duchene (23)DAL 2 – 2 PIT · DAL 34% → 53% +19DAL 34% → 53%+19 pts
- P210:12Mikko Rantanen Goal (21) Slap Shot, assists: Jason Robertson (47), Miro Heiskanen (51)DAL 3 – 2 PIT · DAL 53% → 72% +19DAL 53% → 72%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 54%
- ML DAL -130 / PIT +110
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- DAL: Elo 52.5%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- DAL -119
- PIT +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 3.4 – 3.1 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1554 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | −1 | DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · PIT: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +17 Elo | DAL 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 50.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.47th of 32 |
| 2nd of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.222nd of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+0.7 | Margin | +0.39th of 32 |
| 20th of 3249.2% | Shot share | 51.6%7th of 32 |
| 8th of 3290.3% | Save percentage | 89.4%21st of 32 |
| 15th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 32 |
| 5th of 3221–15 | Road vs home | 16–1926th of 32 |
| 31st of 321495 | Opponent Elo | 150113th of 32 |
| 4th of 321554 | Elo rating | 150316th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 29–43 | 42–30 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 15–41 | 10–20 |
| Underdog | 14–2 | 32–10 |
| Overs–unders | 35–37 | 40–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 4–1 PIT in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.