Pittsburgh Penguins at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Erik KarlssonGoals2
- Rickard RakellAssists2
- Erik KarlssonPoints3
Hurricanes- Jackson BlakeGoals1
- Nikolaj EhlersAssists3
- Jackson BlakePoints3
Scoring summary
- OT4:31Sean Walker Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (45), Seth Jarvis (26)5–6
- P317:09K'Andre Miller Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Sean Walker (16), Nikolaj Ehlers (36)5–5
- P315:09Ben Kindel Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Anthony Mantha (27), Ilya Solovyov (7)5–4
- P314:46Erik Karlsson Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Parker Wotherspoon (21), Sidney Crosby (33)4–4
- P312:59Logan Stankoven Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (35), Jackson Blake (23)3–4
- P37:16Bryan Rust Goal (26) Backhand, assists: none3–3
- P33:27Taylor Hall Goal (15) Backhand, assists: Jackson Blake (22), Logan Stankoven (18)2–3
- P30:59Erik Karlsson Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Rickard Rakell (21), Evgeni Malkin (36)2–2
- P216:51Jackson Blake Goal (20) Backhand, assists: Taylor Hall (23), Nikolaj Ehlers (34)1–2
- P29:57Sidney Crosby Goal (28) Backhand, assists: Rickard Rakell (20), Erik Karlsson (43)1–1
- P19:34Jordan Martinook Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Staal (13), Jaccob Slavin (4)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P312:59Logan Stankoven Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (35), Jackson Blake (23)PIT 3 – 4 CAR · CAR 52% → 87% +35CAR 52% → 87%+35 pts
- P314:46Erik Karlsson Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Parker Wotherspoon (21), Sidney Crosby (33)PIT 4 – 4 CAR · PIT 10% → 48% +38PIT 10% → 48%+38 pts
- P315:09Ben Kindel Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Anthony Mantha (27), Ilya Solovyov (7)PIT 5 – 4 CAR · PIT 49% → 89% +41PIT 49% → 89%+41 pts
- P317:09K'Andre Miller Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Sean Walker (16), Nikolaj Ehlers (36)PIT 5 – 5 CAR · CAR 5% → 51% +46CAR 5% → 51%+46 pts
- OT4:31Sean Walker Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (45), Seth Jarvis (26)PIT 5 – 6 CAR · CAR 50% → >99% +50CAR 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 55%
- ML PIT +114 / CAR -135
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.0 pts
- CAR: Elo 56.2%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- CAR -123
- PIT +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.1 – 3.4 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1559 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | CAR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +2 | −10 | PIT: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.25 more goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +43 Elo | CAR 56.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 60.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 59.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.55th of 32 |
| 12th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.97th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+0.4 | Margin | +0.64th of 32 |
| 8th of 3251.6% | Shot share | 57.2%1st of 32 |
| 18th of 3289.7% | Save percentage | 88.6%27th of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 32 |
| 8th of 3218–15 | Road vs home | 24–113rd of 32 |
| 27th of 321497 | Opponent Elo | 150019th of 32 |
| 13th of 321509 | Elo rating | 15594th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 40–27 | 25–42 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 10–19 | 22–40 |
| Underdog | 30–8 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 36–31 | 36–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 3–6 CAR in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 9.