St. Louis Blues at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Jimmy SnuggerudGoals2
- Dylan HollowayAssists2
- Jimmy SnuggerudPoints2
Hurricanes- Mark JankowskiGoals1
- Mark JankowskiPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:09Pavel Buchnevich Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Finley (3), Alexey Toropchenko (5)3–1
- P315:12Jimmy Snuggerud Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Holloway (16), Robert Thomas (28)2–1
- P23:53Jimmy Snuggerud Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Holloway (15), Cam Fowler (22)1–1
- P18:38Mark Jankowski Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:38Mark Jankowski Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: noneSTL 0 – 1 CAR · CAR 70% → 82% +12CAR 70% → 82%+12 pts
- P23:53Jimmy Snuggerud Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Holloway (15), Cam Fowler (22)STL 1 – 1 CAR · STL 18% → 33% +15STL 18% → 33%+15 pts
- P315:12Jimmy Snuggerud Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Holloway (16), Robert Thomas (28)STL 2 – 1 CAR · STL 44% → 87% +43STL 44% → 87%+43 pts
- P319:09Pavel Buchnevich Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Finley (3), Alexey Toropchenko (5)STL 3 – 1 CAR · STL >99% → >99% +0STL >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 71%
- ML STL +235 / CAR -290
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.1 pts
- CAR: Elo 69.2%, market 71.4%
- Fair odds
- CAR -249
- STL +249 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 2.1 – 3.4 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1565 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −7 | +5 | STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.18 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · CAR: Brandon Bussi: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +141 Elo | CAR 69.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 74.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 73.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 71.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.62nd of 32 |
| 26th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 2.97th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−0.7 | Margin | +0.74th of 32 |
| 26th of 3247.4% | Shot share | 57.1%1st of 32 |
| 26th of 3288.7% | Save percentage | 88.7%25th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 32 |
| 28th of 3211–20 | Road vs home | 24–103rd of 32 |
| 22nd of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 149925th of 32 |
| 26th of 321472 | Elo rating | 15654th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 34–30 | 24–40 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–19 | 22–38 |
| Underdog | 32–11 | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 32–32 | 36–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 3–2 CAR in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.