Carolina Hurricanes at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Jackson BlakeGoals2
- K'Andre MillerAssists3
- K'Andre MillerPoints3
Oilers- Zach HymanGoals2
- Mattias EkholmAssists1
- Zach HymanPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:31Jackson Blake Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Logan Stankoven (17), Sean Walker (14)6–3
- P318:39Jordan Staal Goal (16) Backhand, assists: K'Andre Miller (24), Frederik Andersen (1)5–3
- P311:43Zach Hyman Goal (27) Snap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (58), Evan Bouchard (54)4–3
- P37:32Jackson Blake Goal (18) Slap Shot, assists: K'Andre Miller (23), Taylor Hall (20)4–2
- P23:20Vasily Podkolzin Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: none3–2
- P21:37Jordan Martinook Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (30), K'Andre Miller (22)3–1
- P112:06Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: none2–1
- P111:20Shayne Gostisbehere Goal (11) Slap Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (23), Sebastian Aho (39)1–1
- P110:43Zach Hyman Goal (26) Backhand, assists: Connor McDavid (71), Mattias Ekholm (27)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:43Zach Hyman Goal (26) Backhand, assists: Connor McDavid (71), Mattias Ekholm (27)CAR 0 – 1 EDM · EDM 50% → 65% +16EDM 50% → 65%+16 pts
- P111:20Shayne Gostisbehere Goal (11) Slap Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (23), Sebastian Aho (39)CAR 1 – 1 EDM · CAR 35% → 50% +16CAR 35% → 50%+16 pts
- P112:06Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: noneCAR 2 – 1 EDM · CAR 50% → 66% +16CAR 50% → 66%+16 pts
- P23:20Vasily Podkolzin Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: noneCAR 3 – 2 EDM · EDM 17% → 32% +14EDM 17% → 32%+14 pts
- P37:32Jackson Blake Goal (18) Slap Shot, assists: K'Andre Miller (23), Taylor Hall (20)CAR 4 – 2 EDM · CAR 79% → 95% +16CAR 79% → 95%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 50%
- ML CAR -112 / EDM -108
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- CAR: Elo 49.1%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- CAR -102
- EDM +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.3 – 3.2 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1562 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −12 | −6 | CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.29 more goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · EDM: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.16 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +6 Elo | EDM 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 50.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 3.53rd of 32 |
| 5th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.426th of 32 |
| 4th of 32+0.6 | Margin | +0.212th of 32 |
| 1st of 3256.9% | Shot share | 52.7%5th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3289.0% | Save percentage | 88.1%30th of 32 |
| 2nd of 328–2 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 6th of 3216–12 | Road vs home | 16–1416th of 32 |
| 24th of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 149232nd of 32 |
| 4th of 321562 | Elo rating | 15277th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 23–38 | 23–39 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 21–36 | 18–36 |
| Underdog | 2–2 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders | 33–28 | 39–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 10–0 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 2–3 EDM in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.