Tampa Bay Lightning at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Brayden PointGoals1
- Jake GuentzelAssists3
- Jake GuentzelPoints3
Hurricanes- Taylor HallGoals1
- Andrei SvechnikovAssists2
- Taylor HallPoints2
Scoring summary
- P37:17Sebastian Aho Goal (21) Slap Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (19), Andrei Svechnikov (30)4–5
- P214:02Brayden Point Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (37), Darren Raddysh (36)4–4
- P27:21Seth Jarvis Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (29), Mark Jankowski (9)3–4
- P21:58Dominic James Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (36), Ryan McDonagh (7)3–3
- P117:05Nikita Kucherov Goal (31) Snap Shot, assists: Brayden Point (21), J.J. Moser (15)2–3
- P116:30Brandon Hagel Goal (28) Snap Shot, assists: Scott Sabourin (3), Jake Guentzel (35)1–3
- P16:41Taylor Hall Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Jackson Blake (18), Logan Stankoven (16)0–3
- P12:56Logan Stankoven Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Taylor Hall (16), Jalen Chatfield (13)0–2
- P11:43Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: K'Andre Miller (20), Jordan Martinook (12)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:43Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: K'Andre Miller (20), Jordan Martinook (12)TB 0 – 1 CAR · CAR 57% → 71% +14CAR 57% → 71%+14 pts
- P21:58Dominic James Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (36), Ryan McDonagh (7)TB 3 – 3 CAR · TB 27% → 44% +17TB 27% → 44%+17 pts
- P27:21Seth Jarvis Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (29), Mark Jankowski (9)TB 3 – 4 CAR · CAR 55% → 74% +18CAR 55% → 74%+18 pts
- P214:02Brayden Point Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (37), Darren Raddysh (36)TB 4 – 4 CAR · TB 25% → 45% +20TB 25% → 45%+20 pts
- P37:17Sebastian Aho Goal (21) Slap Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (19), Andrei Svechnikov (30)TB 4 – 5 CAR · CAR 53% → 81% +28CAR 53% → 81%+28 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 57%
- ML TB +124 / CAR -148
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.7 pts
- CAR: Elo 59.9%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- CAR -134
- TB +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.0 – 3.5 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1591 | 1557 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | TB on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −29 | +11 | TB: Jonas Johansson: team allows 0.72 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · CAR: Brandon Bussi: team allows 0.27 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈21 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +70 Elo | CAR 59.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 61.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 60.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 323.6 | Goals scored | 3.54th of 32 |
| 2nd of 322.5 | Goals allowed | 2.96th of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+1.1 | Margin | +0.64th of 32 |
| 8th of 3251.6% | Shot share | 56.7%1st of 32 |
| 2nd of 3291.0% | Save percentage | 89.1%22nd of 32 |
| 1st of 329–1 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 32 |
| 1st of 3219–9 | Road vs home | 21–103rd of 32 |
| 25th of 321496 | Opponent Elo | 149823rd of 32 |
| 1st of 321591 | Elo rating | 15573rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 28–28 | 21–36 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 18–28 | 19–34 |
| Underdog | 10–0 | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 28–28 | 30–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 5–2 CAR in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.