Boston Bruins at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- Morgan GeekieGoals2
- Charlie McAvoyAssists2
- Morgan GeekiePoints3
Lightning- Nikita KucherovGoals1
- Nikita KucherovAssists3
- Nikita KucherovPoints4
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Jake Guentzel Goal Snap Shot0–1
- P311:50Nikita Kucherov Goal (28) Slap Shot, assists: Ryan McDonagh (5), Erik Cernak (6)5–5
- P216:13Nick Paul Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Jake Guentzel (33), Nikita Kucherov (58)5–4
- P215:50Darren Raddysh Goal (16) Slap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (57), Brandon Hagel (26)5–3
- P210:28Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (25), Jake Guentzel (32)5–2
- P28:18Morgan Geekie Goal (32) Slap Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (48), Marat Khusnutdinov (13)5–1
- P22:22Matthew Poitras Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Mark Kastelic (8)4–1
- P118:03Viktor Arvidsson Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Charlie McAvoy (34), Morgan Geekie (21)3–1
- P115:36Morgan Geekie Goal (31) Tip-In, assists: Charlie McAvoy (33), Jonathan Aspirot (5)2–1
- P111:24Alex Steeves Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Michael Eyssimont (9)1–1
- P10:11Brandon Hagel Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (56), Darren Raddysh (33)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:24Alex Steeves Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Michael Eyssimont (9)BOS 1 – 1 TB · BOS 22% → 36% +14BOS 22% → 36%+14 pts
- P115:36Morgan Geekie Goal (31) Tip-In, assists: Charlie McAvoy (33), Jonathan Aspirot (5)BOS 2 – 1 TB · BOS 36% → 53% +17BOS 36% → 53%+17 pts
- P118:03Viktor Arvidsson Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Charlie McAvoy (34), Morgan Geekie (21)BOS 3 – 1 TB · BOS 54% → 70% +16BOS 54% → 70%+16 pts
- P216:13Nick Paul Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Jake Guentzel (33), Nikita Kucherov (58)BOS 5 – 4 TB · TB 18% → 37% +19TB 18% → 37%+19 pts
- P311:50Nikita Kucherov Goal (28) Slap Shot, assists: Ryan McDonagh (5), Erik Cernak (6)BOS 5 – 5 TB · TB 20% → 56% +36TB 20% → 56%+36 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- TB 66%
- ML BOS +180 / TB -218
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.4 pts
- TB: Elo 62.3%, market 65.7%
- Fair odds
- TB -192
- BOS +192 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 2.3 – 3.2 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1582 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | — | Neutral site, no advantage |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +13 | BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.33 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +87 Elo | TB 62.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 61.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 61.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 65.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.52nd of 32 |
| 17th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.51st of 32 |
| 9th of 32+0.3 | Margin | +1.02nd of 32 |
| 25th of 3247.5% | Shot share | 51.5%9th of 32 |
| 11th of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 91.0%4th of 32 |
| 2nd of 328–2 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 32 |
| 21st of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 149528th of 32 |
| 17th of 321505 | Elo rating | 15822nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 35–20 | 26–26 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–10 | 16–26 |
| Underdog | 27–10 | 10–0 |
| Overs–unders | 31–24 | 25–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 3–6 TB in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.