Vegas Golden Knights at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Jack EichelGoals1
- Jack EichelAssists1
- Jack EichelPoints2
Bruins- David PastrnakGoals1
- David PastrnakAssists2
- David PastrnakPoints3
Scoring summary
- P317:25Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Shea Theodore (19), Mitch Marner (40)3–4
- P33:01Tomas Hertl Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Stone (31), Jack Eichel (41)2–4
- P30:31Jack Eichel Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Hanifin (18), Kaedan Korczak (9)1–4
- P27:25David Pastrnak Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Zadorov (16), Elias Lindholm (26)0–4
- P110:06Tanner Jeannot Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Kuraly (11)0–3
- P19:42Elias Lindholm Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (42), Morgan Geekie (19)0–2
- P19:12Charlie McAvoy Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (41), Morgan Geekie (18)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:12Charlie McAvoy Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (41), Morgan Geekie (18)VGK 0 – 1 BOS · BOS 41% → 57% +16BOS 41% → 57%+16 pts
- P19:42Elias Lindholm Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (42), Morgan Geekie (19)VGK 0 – 2 BOS · BOS 57% → 72% +15BOS 57% → 72%+15 pts
- P110:06Tanner Jeannot Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Kuraly (11)VGK 0 – 3 BOS · BOS 72% → 84% +12BOS 72% → 84%+12 pts
- P27:25David Pastrnak Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Zadorov (16), Elias Lindholm (26)VGK 0 – 4 BOS · BOS 91% → 96% +6BOS 91% → 96%+6 pts
- P33:01Tomas Hertl Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Stone (31), Jack Eichel (41)VGK 2 – 4 BOS · VGK 3% → 11% +8VGK 3% → 11%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 59%
- ML VGK -162 / BOS +136
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.2 pts
- VGK: Elo 49.1%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- VGK -146
- BOS +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 3.5 – 3.0 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −2 | VGK: Akira Schmid: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) · BOS: Joonas Korpisalo: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +6 Elo | BOS 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 56.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 54.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.310th of 32 |
| 15th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.118th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+0.3 | Margin | +0.211th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3254.1% | Shot share | 47.7%25th of 32 |
| 30th of 3288.4% | Save percentage | 90.0%13th of 32 |
| 4th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 32 |
| 11th of 3212–11 | Road vs home | 17–94th of 32 |
| 30th of 321494 | Opponent Elo | 150111th of 32 |
| 7th of 321524 | Elo rating | 149817th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VGK |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 16–32 | 33–17 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 10–31 | 7–7 |
| Underdog | 6–1 | 26–10 |
| Overs–unders | 27–21 | 27–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VGK 4–1 BOS in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.