Boston Bruins at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- Morgan GeekieGoals1
- Nikita ZadorovAssists1
- Morgan GeekiePoints1
Stars- Jason RobertsonGoals2
- Miro HeiskanenAssists3
- Justin HryckowianPoints3
Scoring summary
- P315:39Fraser Minten Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Nikita Zadorov (15)2–6
- P312:11Morgan Geekie Goal (26) Tip-In, assists: David Pastrnak (40), Elias Lindholm (25)1–6
- P36:37Jason Robertson Goal (29) Snap Shot, assists: Mavrik Bourque (10), Radek Faksa (15)0–6
- P33:15Jason Robertson Goal (28) Wrap-around, assists: Miro Heiskanen (32), Roope Hintz (24)0–5
- P219:29Justin Hryckowian Goal (8) Deflected, assists: Thomas Harley (16)0–4
- P28:26Esa Lindell Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Miro Heiskanen (31), Justin Hryckowian (9)0–3
- P119:47Mavrik Bourque Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Thomas Harley (15), Justin Hryckowian (8)0–2
- P116:08Wyatt Johnston Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (23), Miro Heiskanen (30)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P116:08Wyatt Johnston Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (23), Miro Heiskanen (30)BOS 0 – 1 DAL · DAL 54% → 70% +16DAL 54% → 70%+16 pts
- P119:47Mavrik Bourque Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Thomas Harley (15), Justin Hryckowian (8)BOS 0 – 2 DAL · DAL 71% → 84% +13DAL 71% → 84%+13 pts
- P28:26Esa Lindell Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Miro Heiskanen (31), Justin Hryckowian (9)BOS 0 – 3 DAL · DAL 86% → 95% +8DAL 86% → 95%+8 pts
- P219:29Justin Hryckowian Goal (8) Deflected, assists: Thomas Harley (16)BOS 0 – 4 DAL · DAL 97% → >99% +2DAL 97% → >99%+2 pts
- P33:15Jason Robertson Goal (28) Wrap-around, assists: Miro Heiskanen (32), Roope Hintz (24)BOS 0 – 5 DAL · DAL >99% → >99% +0DAL >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 55%
- ML BOS +114 / DAL -135
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.9 pts
- DAL: Elo 59.1%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- DAL -123
- BOS +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 2.6 – 2.9 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | −2 | BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +64 Elo | DAL 59.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 64.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 63.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.39th of 32 |
| 12th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.86th of 32 |
| 8th of 32+0.3 | Margin | +0.54th of 32 |
| 24th of 3248.0% | Shot share | 47.5%25th of 32 |
| 12th of 3290.2% | Save percentage | 90.6%7th of 32 |
| 2nd of 328–2 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 32 |
| 17th of 3211–12 | Road vs home | 12–1013th of 32 |
| 13th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 149626th of 32 |
| 16th of 321502 | Elo rating | 15385th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 33–16 | 20–29 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 7–7 | 10–27 |
| Underdog | 26–9 | 10–2 |
| Overs–unders | 26–23 | 23–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 2–2 DAL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.