Seattle Kraken at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Eeli TolvanenGoals1
- Brandon MontourAssists1
- Chandler StephensonPoints1
Bruins- David PastrnakGoals1
- Charlie McAvoyAssists2
- Charlie McAvoyPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:45David Pastrnak Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Geekie (17), Charlie McAvoy (26)2–4
- P212:27Eeli Tolvanen Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Montour (11), Kaapo Kakko (12)2–3
- P24:40Mark Kastelic Goal (8) Backhand, assists: none1–3
- P17:29Chandler Stephenson Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Jared McCann (9), Vince Dunn (22)1–2
- P13:45Viktor Arvidsson Goal (10) Deflected, assists: Pavel Zacha (19), Casey Mittelstadt (11)0–2
- P10:54Marat Khusnutdinov Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Charlie McAvoy (25)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:54Marat Khusnutdinov Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Charlie McAvoy (25)SEA 0 – 1 BOS · BOS 61% → 74% +13BOS 61% → 74%+13 pts
- P13:45Viktor Arvidsson Goal (10) Deflected, assists: Pavel Zacha (19), Casey Mittelstadt (11)SEA 0 – 2 BOS · BOS 74% → 85% +11BOS 74% → 85%+11 pts
- P17:29Chandler Stephenson Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Jared McCann (9), Vince Dunn (22)SEA 1 – 2 BOS · SEA 15% → 26% +11SEA 15% → 26%+11 pts
- P24:40Mark Kastelic Goal (8) Backhand, assists: noneSEA 1 – 3 BOS · BOS 75% → 88% +12BOS 75% → 88%+12 pts
- P212:27Eeli Tolvanen Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Montour (11), Kaapo Kakko (12)SEA 2 – 3 BOS · SEA 10% → 23% +13SEA 10% → 23%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bruins 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 61%
- ML SEA +145 / BOS -175
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.3 pts
- BOS: Elo 61.2%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- BOS -156
- SEA +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 2.9 – 3.6 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | SEA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +5 | SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +79 Elo | BOS 61.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 62.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 62.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.310th of 32 |
| 9th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.117th of 32 |
| 19th of 32−0.1 | Margin | +0.210th of 32 |
| 29th of 3246.5% | Shot share | 48.0%24th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3291.0% | Save percentage | 90.1%13th of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 16th of 3211–12 | Road vs home | 16–93rd of 32 |
| 32nd of 321493 | Opponent Elo | 150211th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321480 | Elo rating | 149518th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 32–13 | 31–16 |
| Last 10 | 10–0 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–3 | 5–7 |
| Underdog | 29–10 | 26–9 |
| Overs–unders | 18–27 | 25–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 4–1 BOS in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.