Detroit Red Wings at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings
Bruins- Pavel ZachaGoals1
- Charlie McAvoyAssists1
- Pavel ZachaPoints1
Scoring summary
- P316:01Mark Kastelic Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Tanner Jeannot (14), Sean Kuraly (10)0–3
- P33:49Fraser Minten Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Charlie McAvoy (24), David Pastrnak (37)0–2
- P210:59Pavel Zacha Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason Lohrei (15), Viktor Arvidsson (14)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P210:59Pavel Zacha Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason Lohrei (15), Viktor Arvidsson (14)DET 0 – 1 BOS · BOS 55% → 74% +19BOS 55% → 74%+19 pts
- P33:49Fraser Minten Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Charlie McAvoy (24), David Pastrnak (37)DET 0 – 2 BOS · BOS 79% → 93% +15BOS 79% → 93%+15 pts
- P316:01Mark Kastelic Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Tanner Jeannot (14), Sean Kuraly (10)DET 0 – 3 BOS · BOS >99% → >99% +0BOS >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bruins 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 57%
- ML DET +124 / BOS -148
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.8 pts
- BOS: Elo 56.4%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- BOS -134
- DET +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.0 – 3.5 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | DET on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +3 | DET: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +45 Elo | BOS 56.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 56.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 56.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.39th of 32 |
| 15th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.220th of 32 |
| 15th of 32+0.1 | Margin | +0.111th of 32 |
| 16th of 3250.2% | Shot share | 47.6%24th of 32 |
| 17th of 3289.7% | Save percentage | 89.9%14th of 32 |
| 4th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 32 |
| 8th of 3212–10 | Road vs home | 15–95th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321497 | Opponent Elo | 150211th of 32 |
| 11th of 321512 | Elo rating | 149118th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 24–23 | 30–16 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–17 | 4–7 |
| Underdog | 19–6 | 26–9 |
| Overs–unders | 24–23 | 25–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 4–5 BOS in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.