Carolina Hurricanes at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Seth JarvisGoals1
- Sebastian AhoAssists2
- Sebastian AhoPoints2
Red Wings- Alex DeBrincatGoals1
- Alex DeBrincatAssists2
- Alex DeBrincatPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT3:27Andrew Copp Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (25)3–4
- P316:59Shayne Gostisbehere Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (28)3–3
- P37:56Seth Jarvis Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (27)2–3
- P34:44Jackson Blake Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Taylor Hall (14), Alexander Nikishin (13)1–3
- P24:54Albert Johansson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Patrick Kane (20), Alex DeBrincat (24)0–3
- P21:28Alex DeBrincat Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Andrew Copp (20), Ben Chiarot (6)0–2
- P11:32James van Riemsdyk Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Moritz Seider (26), Lucas Raymond (35)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:32James van Riemsdyk Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Moritz Seider (26), Lucas Raymond (35)CAR 0 – 1 DET · DET 42% → 56% +15DET 42% → 56%+15 pts
- P21:28Alex DeBrincat Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Andrew Copp (20), Ben Chiarot (6)CAR 0 – 2 DET · DET 61% → 77% +16DET 61% → 77%+16 pts
- P37:56Seth Jarvis Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (27)CAR 2 – 3 DET · CAR 6% → 24% +17CAR 6% → 24%+17 pts
- P316:59Shayne Gostisbehere Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (28)CAR 3 – 3 DET · CAR 6% → 52% +46CAR 6% → 52%+46 pts
- OT3:27Andrew Copp Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (25)CAR 3 – 4 DET · DET 49% → 99% +50DET 49% → 99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 58%
- ML CAR -155 / DET +130
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.6 pts
- CAR: Elo 47.7%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- CAR -140
- DET +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.5 – 3.0 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1545 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −11 | +5 | CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.29 more goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · DET: John Gibson: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +16 Elo | DET 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 57.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 55.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.217th of 32 |
| 12th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.115th of 32 |
| 5th of 32+0.4 | Margin | +0.116th of 32 |
| 1st of 3257.0% | Shot share | 50.5%15th of 32 |
| 26th of 3288.7% | Save percentage | 89.6%17th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3212–8 | Road vs home | 15–94th of 32 |
| 10th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 149526th of 32 |
| 3rd of 321545 | Elo rating | 151013th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 17–28 | 23–23 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 15–26 | 5–17 |
| Underdog | 2–2 | 18–6 |
| Overs–unders | 24–21 | 23–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 6–1 DET in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.