Seattle Kraken at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Berkly CattonGoals1
- Ryan WintertonAssists1
- Matty BeniersPoints1
Hurricanes- William CarrierGoals1
- Jordan StaalAssists2
- Jordan StaalPoints2
Scoring summary
- P313:50William Carrier Goal (5) Deflected, assists: Jaccob Slavin (1), Jordan Staal (9)2–3
- P310:37Jordan Martinook Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Staal (8), Seth Jarvis (12)2–2
- P35:56Berkly Catton Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Winterton (7)2–1
- P114:13Matty Beniers Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–1
- P13:23Logan Stankoven Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: K'Andre Miller (17)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:23Logan Stankoven Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: K'Andre Miller (17)SEA 0 – 1 CAR · CAR 72% → 83% +11CAR 72% → 83%+11 pts
- P114:13Matty Beniers Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: noneSEA 1 – 1 CAR · SEA 18% → 30% +13SEA 18% → 30%+13 pts
- P35:56Berkly Catton Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Winterton (7)SEA 2 – 1 CAR · SEA 39% → 68% +29SEA 39% → 68%+29 pts
- P310:37Jordan Martinook Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Staal (8), Seth Jarvis (12)SEA 2 – 2 CAR · CAR 25% → 59% +35CAR 25% → 59%+35 pts
- P313:50William Carrier Goal (5) Deflected, assists: Jaccob Slavin (1), Jordan Staal (9)SEA 2 – 3 CAR · CAR 57% → 91% +33CAR 57% → 91%+33 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 72%
- ML SEA +245 / CAR -305
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.6 pts
- CAR: Elo 63.6%, market 72.2%
- Fair odds
- CAR -260
- SEA +260 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 2.6 – 3.9 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1544 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +4 | SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · CAR: Brandon Bussi: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +97 Elo | CAR 63.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 68.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 67.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 72.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.54th of 32 |
| 10th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.013th of 32 |
| 19th of 32−0.1 | Margin | +0.45th of 32 |
| 28th of 3246.9% | Shot share | 56.7%1st of 32 |
| 4th of 3291.1% | Save percentage | 88.7%26th of 32 |
| 2nd of 328–2 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 10th of 3210–10 | Road vs home | 15–93rd of 32 |
| 32nd of 321494 | Opponent Elo | 15038th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321480 | Elo rating | 15444th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 29–13 | 17–27 |
| Last 10 | 10–0 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–3 | 15–25 |
| Underdog | 26–10 | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 17–25 | 24–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 2–2 CAR in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.