Minnesota Wild at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Brock FaberGoals1
- Kirill KaprizovAssists2
- Brock FaberPoints2
Kraken- Adam LarssonGoals1
- Vince DunnAssists2
- Vince DunnPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT2:09Mats Zuccarello Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (27), Brock Faber (16)3–2
- P39:07Matty Beniers Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Jared McCann (7), Vince Dunn (19)2–2
- P33:13Adam Larsson Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Vince Dunn (18)2–1
- P115:54Brock Faber Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (33), Matt Boldy (23)2–0
- P15:00Ryan Hartman Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (26)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:00Ryan Hartman Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (26)MIN 1 – 0 SEA · MIN 60% → 74% +14MIN 60% → 74%+14 pts
- P115:54Brock Faber Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (33), Matt Boldy (23)MIN 2 – 0 SEA · MIN 74% → 86% +12MIN 74% → 86%+12 pts
- P33:13Adam Larsson Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Vince Dunn (18)MIN 2 – 1 SEA · SEA 6% → 20% +14SEA 6% → 20%+14 pts
- P39:07Matty Beniers Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Jared McCann (7), Vince Dunn (19)MIN 2 – 2 SEA · SEA 17% → 46% +29SEA 17% → 46%+29 pts
- OT2:09Mats Zuccarello Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (27), Brock Faber (16)MIN 3 – 2 SEA · MIN 52% → 96% +44MIN 52% → 96%+44 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wild 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 60%
- ML MIN -170 / SEA +142
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.6 pts
- MIN: Elo 51.7%, market 60.4%
- Fair odds
- MIN -152
- SEA +152 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.0 – 2.5 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | −3 | MIN: Jesper Wallstedt: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈18 weighted starts) · SEA: Philipp Grubauer: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +12 Elo | MIN 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 62.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 60.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 60.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 2.827th of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 2.910th of 32 |
| 4th of 32+0.5 | Margin | −0.119th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3248.8% | Shot share | 46.9%28th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3291.8% | Save percentage | 91.1%5th of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 32 |
| 8th of 3212–10 | Road vs home | 10–1121st of 32 |
| 29th of 321495 | Opponent Elo | 149332nd of 32 |
| 7th of 321527 | Elo rating | 148223rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 25–19 | 28–13 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 9–15 | 3–3 |
| Underdog | 16–4 | 25–10 |
| Overs–unders | 23–21 | 17–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 5–2 SEA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.