Minnesota Wild at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Brock FaberGoals1
- Brock FaberAssists1
- Brock FaberPoints2
Kings- Quinton ByfieldGoals1
- Quinton ByfieldAssists1
- Quinton ByfieldPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Brandt Clarke Goal Wrist Shot1–2
- SO0:00Matt Boldy Goal Backhand1–2
- SO0:00Adrian Kempe Goal Wrist Shot0–2
- P317:03Matt Boldy Goal (26) Deflected, assists: Brock Faber (14), Marcus Foligno (4)4–4
- P312:09Samuel Helenius Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Kevin Fiala (14), Alex Turcotte (5)3–4
- P37:33Brock Faber Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Danila Yurov (10), Kirill Kaprizov (25)3–3
- P34:54Quinton Byfield Goal (6) , assists: none2–3
- P218:23Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (32)2–2
- P216:57Corey Perry Goal (9) Deflected, assists: Quinton Byfield (17), Brandt Clarke (14)1–2
- P18:28Jake Middleton Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (15), Zach Bogosian (3)1–1
- P16:08Adrian Kempe Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (15), Alex Laferriere (9)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P218:23Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (32)MIN 2 – 2 LA · MIN 26% → 48% +23MIN 26% → 48%+23 pts
- P34:54Quinton Byfield Goal (6) , assists: noneMIN 2 – 3 LA · LA 51% → 78% +26LA 51% → 78%+26 pts
- P37:33Brock Faber Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Danila Yurov (10), Kirill Kaprizov (25)MIN 3 – 3 LA · MIN 20% → 49% +29MIN 20% → 49%+29 pts
- P312:09Samuel Helenius Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Kevin Fiala (14), Alex Turcotte (5)MIN 3 – 4 LA · LA 51% → 85% +34LA 51% → 85%+34 pts
- P317:03Matt Boldy Goal (26) Deflected, assists: Brock Faber (14), Marcus Foligno (4)MIN 4 – 4 LA · MIN 5% → 49% +45MIN 5% → 49%+45 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- LA 53%
- ML MIN +102 / LA -122
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.2 pts
- LA: Elo 55.8%, market 52.6%
- Fair odds
- LA -111
- MIN +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 2.7 – 2.8 LA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | MIN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +7 | MIN: Jesper Wallstedt: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) · LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +41 Elo | LA 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 55.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 55.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LA 52.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 2.631st of 32 |
| 2nd of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 2.75th of 32 |
| 4th of 32+0.6 | Margin | −0.120th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3248.9% | Shot share | 51.1%9th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3291.9% | Save percentage | 90.8%6th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 32 |
| 4th of 3212–8 | Road vs home | 5–1330th of 32 |
| 24th of 321496 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 32 |
| 6th of 321533 | Elo rating | 150513th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  LA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 24–18 | 15–24 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 9–14 | 5–20 |
| Underdog | 15–4 | 10–4 |
| Overs–unders | 21–21 | 16–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 3–4 LA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 7.