Minnesota Wild at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Jared SpurgeonGoals1
- Jared SpurgeonAssists1
- Jared SpurgeonPoints2
Kings- Andrei KuzmenkoGoals1
- Brian DumoulinAssists2
- Andrei KuzmenkoPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:21Adrian Kempe Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Laferriere (10), Quinton Byfield (18)2–4
- P315:21Ryan Hartman Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Jared Spurgeon (9), Brock Faber (15)2–3
- P39:20Andrei Kuzmenko Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Brian Dumoulin (10)1–3
- P35:55Jared Spurgeon Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Jonas Brodin (11), Nico Sturm (5)1–2
- P217:52Kevin Fiala Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Andrei Kuzmenko (7), Alex Turcotte (6)0–2
- P215:34Warren Foegele Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Brian Dumoulin (9), Jeff Malott (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P215:34Warren Foegele Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Brian Dumoulin (9), Jeff Malott (1)MIN 0 – 1 LA · LA 48% → 70% +22LA 48% → 70%+22 pts
- P217:52Kevin Fiala Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Andrei Kuzmenko (7), Alex Turcotte (6)MIN 0 – 2 LA · LA 71% → 88% +16LA 71% → 88%+16 pts
- P35:55Jared Spurgeon Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Jonas Brodin (11), Nico Sturm (5)MIN 1 – 2 LA · MIN 7% → 24% +17MIN 7% → 24%+17 pts
- P39:20Andrei Kuzmenko Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Brian Dumoulin (10)MIN 1 – 3 LA · LA 80% → 96% +16LA 80% → 96%+16 pts
- P315:21Ryan Hartman Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Jared Spurgeon (9), Brock Faber (15)MIN 2 – 3 LA · MIN <1% → 10% +9MIN <1% → 10%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wild 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 53%
- ML MIN -122 / LA +102
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.0 pts
- MIN: Elo 47.6%, market 52.6%
- Fair odds
- MIN -111
- LA +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 2.8 – 2.7 LA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +5 | MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +17 Elo | LA 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 51.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 52.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 2.729th of 32 |
| 2nd of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 2.85th of 32 |
| 4th of 32+0.5 | Margin | −0.120th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3248.7% | Shot share | 51.2%8th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3291.8% | Save percentage | 90.7%7th of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 3–728th of 32 |
| 7th of 3212–9 | Road vs home | 6–1330th of 32 |
| 24th of 321495 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 32 |
| 7th of 321531 | Elo rating | 150711th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  LA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 25–18 | 15–25 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 9–14 | 5–21 |
| Underdog | 16–4 | 10–4 |
| Overs–unders | 22–21 | 17–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 3–5 LA in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.