Seattle Kraken at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Jordan EberleGoals1
- Ryan LindgrenAssists1
- Jordan EberlePoints1
Rangers- Mika ZibanejadGoals1
- Mika ZibanejadPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:50Jared McCann Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–2
- P312:02Berkly Catton Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Shane Wright (9), Ryan Lindgren (6)3–2
- P24:27Jordan Eberle Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Kaapo Kakko (11), Matty Beniers (20)2–2
- P21:00Eeli Tolvanen Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Freddy Gaudreau (8)1–2
- P15:31Sam Carrick Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–2
- P13:08Mika Zibanejad Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (34), Carson Soucy (4)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:08Mika Zibanejad Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (34), Carson Soucy (4)SEA 0 – 1 NYR · NYR 56% → 70% +14NYR 56% → 70%+14 pts
- P15:31Sam Carrick Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: noneSEA 0 – 2 NYR · NYR 70% → 82% +12NYR 70% → 82%+12 pts
- P21:00Eeli Tolvanen Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Freddy Gaudreau (8)SEA 1 – 2 NYR · SEA 15% → 28% +13SEA 15% → 28%+13 pts
- P24:27Jordan Eberle Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Kaapo Kakko (11), Matty Beniers (20)SEA 2 – 2 NYR · SEA 28% → 45% +18SEA 28% → 45%+18 pts
- P312:02Berkly Catton Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Shane Wright (9), Ryan Lindgren (6)SEA 3 – 2 NYR · SEA 48% → 83% +35SEA 48% → 83%+35 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NYR 56%
- ML SEA +120 / NYR -142
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.7 pts
- NYR: Elo 55.6%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- NYR -129
- SEA +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 2.6 – 2.9 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | −9 | SEA: Philipp Grubauer: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) · NYR: Jonathan Quick: team allows 0.24 more goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +39 Elo | NYR 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 60.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 59.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYR 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 2.630th of 32 |
| 9th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 2.910th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.2 | Margin | −0.324th of 32 |
| 29th of 3246.4% | Shot share | 47.6%26th of 32 |
| 4th of 3291.1% | Save percentage | 90.7%5th of 32 |
| 4th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 32 |
| 17th of 3210–11 | Road vs home | 5–1531st of 32 |
| 29th of 321495 | Opponent Elo | 15066th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321478 | Elo rating | 148920th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  NYR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 30–13 | 23–23 |
| Last 10 | 10–0 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–3 | 5–17 |
| Underdog | 27–10 | 18–6 |
| Overs–unders | 17–26 | 18–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 1–4 NYR in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.