Seattle Kraken at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Jared McCannGoals1
- Vince DunnAssists2
- Jared McCannPoints2
Devils- Nico HischierGoals2
- Jack HughesAssists2
- Nico HischierPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT3:42Nico Hischier Goal (15) Backhand, assists: Jack Hughes (19), Luke Hughes (21)2–3
- P25:06Jared McCann Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Vince Dunn (21), Jordan Eberle (14)2–2
- P23:33Nico Hischier Goal (14) Slap Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (18), Luke Hughes (20)1–2
- P18:55Adam Larsson Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jared McCann (8), Vince Dunn (20)1–1
- P10:54Cody Glass Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Dougie Hamilton (8)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:54Cody Glass Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Dougie Hamilton (8)SEA 0 – 1 NJ · NJ 59% → 73% +13NJ 59% → 73%+13 pts
- P18:55Adam Larsson Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jared McCann (8), Vince Dunn (20)SEA 1 – 1 NJ · SEA 27% → 41% +14SEA 27% → 41%+14 pts
- P23:33Nico Hischier Goal (14) Slap Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (18), Luke Hughes (20)SEA 1 – 2 NJ · NJ 57% → 74% +17NJ 57% → 74%+17 pts
- P25:06Jared McCann Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Vince Dunn (21), Jordan Eberle (14)SEA 2 – 2 NJ · SEA 26% → 43% +17SEA 26% → 43%+17 pts
- OT3:42Nico Hischier Goal (15) Backhand, assists: Jack Hughes (19), Luke Hughes (21)SEA 2 – 3 NJ · NJ 51% → >99% +48NJ 51% → >99%+48 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 59%
- ML SEA +136 / NJ -162
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.2 pts
- NJ: Elo 54.2%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- NJ -146
- SEA +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 2.5 – 3.0 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | −4 | SEA: Philipp Grubauer: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) · NJ: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +29 Elo | NJ 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 64.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 62.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 2.728th of 32 |
| 9th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.118th of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.1 | Margin | −0.428th of 32 |
| 29th of 3246.6% | Shot share | 51.2%10th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3291.1% | Save percentage | 89.5%19th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 32 |
| 12th of 3211–11 | Road vs home | 11–1018th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321493 | Opponent Elo | 15071st of 32 |
| 21st of 321483 | Elo rating | 147924th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  NJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 31–13 | 18–28 |
| Last 10 | 10–0 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–3 | 5–21 |
| Underdog | 28–10 | 13–7 |
| Overs–unders | 18–26 | 20–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 0–4 NJ in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.