New Jersey Devils at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Cody GlassGoals2
- Jack HughesAssists2
- Cody GlassPoints2
Jets- Jonathan ToewsGoals1
- Cole PerfettiAssists2
- Josh MorrisseyPoints2
Scoring summary
- P36:17Tanner Pearson Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Morrissey (29), Cole Koepke (6)3–4
- P217:57Gabriel Vilardi Goal (18) Batted, assists: Cole Perfetti (10), Josh Morrissey (28)3–3
- P28:08Cody Glass Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (16), Johnathan Kovacevic (1)3–2
- P22:36Jonathan Toews Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Cole Perfetti (9)2–2
- P21:05Cody Glass Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Luke Hughes (19), Jack Hughes (15)2–1
- P119:27Nico Hischier Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Hughes (18), Jesper Bratt (25)1–1
- P118:50Alex Iafallo Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Nino Niederreiter (11), Dylan Samberg (7)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P21:05Cody Glass Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Luke Hughes (19), Jack Hughes (15)NJ 2 – 1 WPG · NJ 47% → 64% +18NJ 47% → 64%+18 pts
- P22:36Jonathan Toews Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Cole Perfetti (9)NJ 2 – 2 WPG · WPG 35% → 53% +18WPG 35% → 53%+18 pts
- P28:08Cody Glass Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (16), Johnathan Kovacevic (1)NJ 3 – 2 WPG · NJ 47% → 66% +19NJ 47% → 66%+19 pts
- P217:57Gabriel Vilardi Goal (18) Batted, assists: Cole Perfetti (10), Josh Morrissey (28)NJ 3 – 3 WPG · WPG 30% → 53% +23WPG 30% → 53%+23 pts
- P36:17Tanner Pearson Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Morrissey (29), Cole Koepke (6)NJ 3 – 4 WPG · WPG 52% → 79% +27WPG 52% → 79%+27 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 54%
- ML NJ +110 / WPG -130
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.9 pts
- WPG: Elo 60.2%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- WPG -119
- NJ +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 2.6 – 2.9 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +4 | NJ: Jake Allen: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +72 Elo | WPG 60.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 55.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 2.923rd of 32 |
| 15th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.119th of 32 |
| 29th of 32−0.5 | Margin | −0.222nd of 32 |
| 11th of 3251.0% | Shot share | 48.8%23rd of 32 |
| 17th of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 89.3%20th of 32 |
| 26th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 1–931st of 32 |
| 16th of 3211–12 | Road vs home | 9–1227th of 32 |
| 1st of 321507 | Opponent Elo | 150212th of 32 |
| 26th of 321474 | Elo rating | 150913th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NJ |  WPG |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 16–28 | 20–23 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–21 | 10–17 |
| Underdog | 11–7 | 10–6 |
| Overs–unders | 18–26 | 25–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NJ 1–3 WPG in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.