Los Angeles Kings at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Quinton ByfieldGoals1
- Taylor WardAssists1
- Quinton ByfieldPoints1
Jets- Mark ScheifeleGoals2
- Gabriel VilardiAssists2
- Mark ScheifelePoints2
Scoring summary
- P219:17Mark Scheifele Goal (22) Slap Shot, assists: Cole Perfetti (8), Gabriel Vilardi (22)1–5
- P212:35Mark Scheifele Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (31), Gabriel Vilardi (21)1–4
- P29:32Quinton Byfield Goal (7) Deflected, assists: Taylor Ward (1), Warren Foegele (2)1–3
- P22:07Jonathan Toews Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Colin Miller (1), Cole Perfetti (7)0–3
- P118:05Cole Koepke Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Dylan Samberg (6), Tanner Pearson (3)0–2
- P11:31Vladislav Namestnikov Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Logan Stanley (7), Nino Niederreiter (10)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:31Vladislav Namestnikov Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Logan Stanley (7), Nino Niederreiter (10)LA 0 – 1 WPG · WPG 45% → 60% +15WPG 45% → 60%+15 pts
- P118:05Cole Koepke Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Dylan Samberg (6), Tanner Pearson (3)LA 0 – 2 WPG · WPG 63% → 78% +15WPG 63% → 78%+15 pts
- P22:07Jonathan Toews Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Colin Miller (1), Cole Perfetti (7)LA 0 – 3 WPG · WPG 79% → 90% +11WPG 79% → 90%+11 pts
- P29:32Quinton Byfield Goal (7) Deflected, assists: Taylor Ward (1), Warren Foegele (2)LA 1 – 3 WPG · LA 7% → 18% +10LA 7% → 18%+10 pts
- P212:35Mark Scheifele Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (31), Gabriel Vilardi (21)LA 1 – 4 WPG · WPG 84% → 94% +10WPG 84% → 94%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- LA 55%
- ML LA -135 / WPG +114
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- LA: Elo 53.3%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- LA -123
- WPG +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 2.9 – 2.6 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | WPG on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +4 | −21 | LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · WPG: Eric Comrie: team allows 0.52 more goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +23 Elo | LA 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 52.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LA 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 2.924th of 32 |
| 6th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.220th of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.1 | Margin | −0.324th of 32 |
| 9th of 3251.1% | Shot share | 48.8%23rd of 32 |
| 7th of 3290.6% | Save percentage | 89.2%22nd of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 0–1032nd of 32 |
| 9th of 3211–10 | Road vs home | 8–1229th of 32 |
| 20th of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 150212th of 32 |
| 13th of 321507 | Elo rating | 150315th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LA |  WPG |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 16–26 | 19–23 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–22 | 10–17 |
| Underdog | 11–4 | 9–6 |
| Overs–unders | 19–23 | 24–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LA 5–3 WPG in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.