San Jose Sharks at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Macklin CelebriniGoals1
- Macklin CelebriniAssists2
- Macklin CelebriniPoints3
Kings- Kevin FialaGoals1
- Joel EdmundsonAssists2
- Kevin FialaPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT3:08William Eklund Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (43)4–3
- P318:53Macklin Celebrini Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–3
- P317:50Alex Laferriere Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Joel Edmundson (14), Cody Ceci (7)2–3
- P36:40Kevin Fiala Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Turcotte (7), Joel Edmundson (13)2–2
- P35:38Adam Gaudette Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Timothy Liljegren (7), Jeff Skinner (6)2–1
- P211:34Alex Turcotte Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Kevin Fiala (15)1–1
- P24:10Tyler Toffoli Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexander Wennberg (22), Macklin Celebrini (42)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P35:38Adam Gaudette Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Timothy Liljegren (7), Jeff Skinner (6)SJ 2 – 1 LA · SJ 42% → 70% +29SJ 42% → 70%+29 pts
- P36:40Kevin Fiala Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Turcotte (7), Joel Edmundson (13)SJ 2 – 2 LA · LA 28% → 58% +30LA 28% → 58%+30 pts
- P317:50Alex Laferriere Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Joel Edmundson (14), Cody Ceci (7)SJ 2 – 3 LA · LA 53% → 98% +44LA 53% → 98%+44 pts
- P318:53Macklin Celebrini Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: noneSJ 3 – 3 LA · SJ <1% → 48% +47SJ <1% → 48%+47 pts
- OT3:08William Eklund Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (43)SJ 4 – 3 LA · SJ 47% → 98% +51SJ 47% → 98%+51 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- LA 67%
- ML SJ +190 / LA -230
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.9 pts
- LA: Elo 71.8%, market 66.9%
- Fair odds
- LA -202
- SJ +202 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.8 – 3.7 LA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1427 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | SJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −9 | +5 | SJ: Yaroslav Askarov: team allows 0.21 more goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) · LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +162 Elo | LA 71.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 69.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 69.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LA 66.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 2.728th of 32 |
| 30th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 2.85th of 32 |
| 27th of 32−0.4 | Margin | 0.017th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3244.7% | Shot share | 51.2%9th of 32 |
| 18th of 3289.4% | Save percentage | 90.8%6th of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 32 |
| 19th of 329–10 | Road vs home | 7–1330th of 32 |
| 3rd of 321506 | Opponent Elo | 150116th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321427 | Elo rating | 151010th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SJ |  LA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 28–14 | 16–25 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 5–21 |
| Underdog | 28–13 | 11–4 |
| Overs–unders | 22–20 | 18–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SJ 4–6 LA in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.