Edmonton Oilers at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Connor McDavidGoals1
- Connor McDavidAssists1
- Connor McDavidPoints2
Jets- Kyle ConnorGoals1
- Mark ScheifeleAssists2
- Kyle ConnorPoints2
Scoring summary
- P310:37Evan Bouchard Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (24), Connor McDavid (48)4–3
- P38:19Zach Hyman Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Darnell Nurse (10)3–3
- P219:39Connor McDavid Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (40), Evan Bouchard (32)2–3
- P118:56Josh Morrissey Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (30), Mark Scheifele (30)1–3
- P118:16Tanner Pearson Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Koepke (5)1–2
- P117:02Vasily Podkolzin Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Kasperi Kapanen (4), Ty Emberson (7)1–1
- P111:11Kyle Connor Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (29), Alex Iafallo (8)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:02Vasily Podkolzin Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Kasperi Kapanen (4), Ty Emberson (7)EDM 1 – 1 WPG · EDM 34% → 51% +17EDM 34% → 51%+17 pts
- P118:16Tanner Pearson Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Koepke (5)EDM 1 – 2 WPG · WPG 49% → 66% +17WPG 49% → 66%+17 pts
- P219:39Connor McDavid Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (40), Evan Bouchard (32)EDM 2 – 3 WPG · EDM 11% → 27% +16EDM 11% → 27%+16 pts
- P38:19Zach Hyman Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Darnell Nurse (10)EDM 3 – 3 WPG · EDM 21% → 50% +30EDM 21% → 50%+30 pts
- P310:37Evan Bouchard Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (24), Connor McDavid (48)EDM 4 – 3 WPG · EDM 50% → 82% +32EDM 50% → 82%+32 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 51%
- ML EDM -115 / WPG -105
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- EDM: Elo 49.3%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- EDM -104
- WPG +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 3.3 – 3.2 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +4 | EDM: Calvin Pickard: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) · WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +5 Elo | WPG 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 52.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 2.924th of 32 |
| 26th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 3.219th of 32 |
| 14th of 320.0 | Margin | −0.324th of 32 |
| 7th of 3251.3% | Shot share | 49.1%20th of 32 |
| 28th of 3288.5% | Save percentage | 89.3%21st of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 0–1032nd of 32 |
| 25th of 3210–14 | Road vs home | 8–1127th of 32 |
| 16th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 150114th of 32 |
| 5th of 321538 | Elo rating | 150614th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  EDM |  WPG |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 18–25 | 18–23 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 13–22 | 10–17 |
| Underdog | 5–3 | 8–6 |
| Overs–unders | 25–18 | 23–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
EDM 5–3 WPG in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.