Nashville Predators at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Ryan O'ReillyGoals1
- Luke EvangelistaAssists1
- Ryan O'ReillyPoints1
Oilers- Connor McDavidGoals3
- Leon DraisaitlAssists2
- Connor McDavidPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:03Connor McDavid Goal (28) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (23), Mattias Ekholm (16)2–6
- P313:46Leon Draisaitl Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Kasperi Kapanen (3), Vasily Podkolzin (9)2–5
- P34:03Nick Blankenburg Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Reid Schaefer (1), Michael Bunting (14)2–4
- P33:48Ryan O'Reilly Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Nicolas Hague (9), Luke Evangelista (25)1–4
- P218:52Kasperi Kapanen Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (39), Vasily Podkolzin (8)0–4
- P216:15Curtis Lazar Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Matt Savoie (7), Mattias Janmark (6)0–3
- P215:53Connor McDavid Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–2
- P18:53Connor McDavid Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (31), Leon Draisaitl (38)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:53Connor McDavid Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (31), Leon Draisaitl (38)NSH 0 – 1 EDM · EDM 57% → 71% +15EDM 57% → 71%+15 pts
- P215:53Connor McDavid Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: noneNSH 0 – 2 EDM · EDM 76% → 90% +14EDM 76% → 90%+14 pts
- P216:15Curtis Lazar Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Matt Savoie (7), Mattias Janmark (6)NSH 0 – 3 EDM · EDM 90% → 97% +7EDM 90% → 97%+7 pts
- P218:52Kasperi Kapanen Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (39), Vasily Podkolzin (8)NSH 0 – 4 EDM · EDM 97% → >99% +2EDM 97% → >99%+2 pts
- P34:03Nick Blankenburg Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Reid Schaefer (1), Michael Bunting (14)NSH 2 – 4 EDM · NSH 1% → 7% +5NSH 1% → 7%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 57%
- ML NSH +124 / EDM -148
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.9 pts
- EDM: Elo 63.1%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- EDM -134
- NSH +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 3.0 – 3.5 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1468 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | −6 | NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · EDM: Connor Ingram: team allows 0.15 more goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +93 Elo | EDM 63.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 62.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 62.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.39th of 32 |
| 25th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.429th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−0.4 | Margin | −0.119th of 32 |
| 17th of 3250.0% | Shot share | 51.0%11th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3289.1% | Save percentage | 88.4%28th of 32 |
| 4th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 20th of 329–10 | Road vs home | 10–816th of 32 |
| 1st of 321508 | Opponent Elo | 150017th of 32 |
| 28th of 321468 | Elo rating | 15346th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NSH |  EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 21–20 | 17–25 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–8 | 12–22 |
| Underdog | 18–12 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders | 20–21 | 24–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NSH 1–5 EDM in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.